NEW YORK / WASHINGTON / MANILA — November 7, 2026 | WWC ONE MEDIA | Global Business, Artificial Intelligence, Space Technology and US Politics
Elon Musk says SpaceX is becoming dramatically less dependent on the United States government, revealing that federal contracts will account for less than 10% of the company’s revenue in the fourth quarter of 2026 as its artificial intelligence business expands at an extraordinary pace.
The announcement marks a major shift for a company that built much of its early commercial success through partnerships with NASA and the Pentagon.
According to Bloomberg’s November 6 report, government payments represented approximately 16.6% of SpaceX revenue in the third quarter, compared with roughly 20% in 2025.
Musk now predicts that the government share will fall below 10% during the current quarter and decline further to less than 5% within approximately one year.
The billionaire made the declaration on X, responding to criticism of his companies’ federal contracts shortly after Democrats won control of Congress in the US midterm elections.
Musk also said he was willing to cancel government contracts that federal agencies no longer wanted.
But the changing revenue mix is only part of the story.
SpaceX has rapidly transformed itself from a rocket and satellite company into a diversified technology business whose largest revenue engine is now artificial intelligence computing.
Its Super Intelligence division generated approximately $7.56 billion in third-quarter revenue, exceeding its Starlink connectivity business and traditional space operations.
The rapid expansion has helped drive SpaceX’s total quarterly sales to $14.6 billion.
Yet it has also introduced a different financial risk: dependence on major commercial AI customers, including Anthropic.
Could SpaceX’s declining reliance on Washington strengthen Musk’s independence—or is the company exchanging government-contract risk for an even bigger bet on the artificial intelligence boom?
Musk Says Government Revenue Will Fall Below 10%
On November 6, Musk publicly challenged criticism of SpaceX’s federal business.
He argued that the company’s government contracts offered strong performance at competitive prices.
He also predicted that government payments would account for an increasingly small proportion of SpaceX’s overall revenue.
His forecast was significant because NASA and US defense agencies were among SpaceX’s earliest and most important customers.
Those partnerships helped fund rocket development, satellite launches and human spaceflight capabilities.
However, Musk’s statement should be understood precisely.
A decline in government revenue as a percentage of total sales is not necessarily a decline in the actual dollar amount paid by the government.
For example, if government payments remain stable while revenue from AI computing grows rapidly, the government’s share of the total will decrease.
That appears particularly relevant to SpaceX, whose commercial AI revenue has expanded much faster than its traditional space business.
Musk’s under-10% and under-5% figures remain forecasts.
They will need to be evaluated against future financial disclosures.
SpaceX Revenue Surges 161% to $14.6 Billion
SpaceX’s latest financial results help explain the change.
On October 20, the company reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of approximately $14.6 billion, up 161% from $5.6 billion one year earlier.
Net income reached $4.4 billion, compared with a $1.1-billion loss in the comparable period.
Adjusted EBITDA rose to approximately $8.8 billion.
The results represented a major improvement in profitability.
As WWC ONE MEDIA reported in its coverage of SpaceX’s $4.4-billion quarterly profit, the financial turnaround drew attention to the company’s expanding operations beyond rocket launches.
SpaceX now reports three broad business segments: Super Intelligence, Connectivity and Space.
The division generating the most attention is Super Intelligence, which includes artificial intelligence computing services and related software.
That business has rapidly overtaken rocket launches as the company’s largest reported source of quarterly revenue.
AI Computing Becomes SpaceX’s Biggest Revenue Engine
SpaceX’s Super Intelligence division generated $7.56 billion in revenue during the third quarter.
That represented growth of approximately 830% from the corresponding period a year earlier.
The business includes computing infrastructure and AI-related services.
SpaceX operates major data-center facilities in Memphis, Tennessee, where companies rent computing power for advanced AI workloads.
The infrastructure supports customers that require large amounts of processing capacity to train and operate artificial intelligence models.
Demand for this equipment has accelerated as technology businesses develop increasingly sophisticated systems.
For SpaceX, the commercial opportunity is enormous.
Selling computing services can create substantial recurring revenue, especially when customers sign large, multiyear agreements.
But building data centers also requires significant investment.
Facilities need advanced chips, networking equipment, cooling systems and reliable electricity.
That creates a different business model from launching satellites or transporting astronauts.
A successful AI infrastructure provider must manage equipment depreciation, customer demand, operating expenses and rapid technological change.
SpaceX’s latest results demonstrate strong revenue growth.
They do not guarantee that future AI infrastructure investments will deliver the same returns.
Anthropic Becomes SpaceX’s Largest Customer
Perhaps the biggest change is the emergence of Anthropic as SpaceX’s most important individual customer.
Anthropic, the developer of the Claude artificial intelligence models, accounted for approximately 34.5% of SpaceX’s third-quarter revenue, according to reporting by Bloomberg and The Next Web.
That is more than one-third of the company’s total sales.
The relationship illustrates the enormous demand for computing capacity among AI developers.
Training and running advanced models requires large clusters of processors.
AI companies often rent that infrastructure rather than building every facility themselves.
But the commercial success creates a new concentration risk.
If a single customer accounts for more than one-third of revenue, changes in that relationship could have a meaningful effect on financial performance.
The Next Web reported that Anthropic has contractual termination rights beginning in early 2027, subject to notice requirements.
The existence of those provisions does not mean Anthropic intends to leave.
It does mean investors should distinguish contracted revenue from revenue guaranteed indefinitely.
SpaceX may be reducing its reliance on government customers while becoming more exposed to the commercial decisions of major AI companies.
That could become one of the most important issues affecting the company’s future valuation.
NASA and the Pentagon Remain Major SpaceX Partners
Although government revenue is becoming a smaller percentage of total sales, SpaceX continues performing important public-sector missions.
NASA uses SpaceX spacecraft to transport astronauts to and from the International Space Station.
The company’s Crew Dragon capsule and Falcon 9 rocket have become central to NASA’s commercial crew program.
A July 2026 report from NASA’s Office of Inspector General confirmed that SpaceX had completed 12 crewed missions under the program at that point.
The agency also noted the continuing importance of commercial providers for supporting space station operations through 2030.
NASA originally awarded SpaceX a commercial crew development contract with a maximum value of $2.6 billion in 2014.
The contract structure has since changed through additional missions and other modifications.
Those historical contract amounts should not be confused with SpaceX’s revenue for any single quarter.
SpaceX also conducts national-security launches for the US government.
These missions can involve military satellites, intelligence-related payloads and other sensitive space infrastructure.
The relationships remain strategically important even if their share of the company’s overall sales continues to decline.
Starship’s Moon Mission Keeps SpaceX Tied to NASA
Another important federal partnership involves Starship.
NASA selected a version of the spacecraft for its Human Landing System program, which is intended to support the return of astronauts to the lunar surface.
The agency’s current plans include a potential crewed lunar landing in 2028.
That schedule remains subject to spacecraft development, testing, certification and mission-readiness requirements.
SpaceX is still working on the technical capabilities needed for sustained Starship operations.
These include launch reliability, spacecraft reuse and other systems required for lunar missions.
NASA has also selected SpaceX’s Starlink technology to support laser communications demonstrations involving the Artemis program.
The agreements show that the company’s commercial expansion does not mean its role in American space exploration is disappearing.
Government work may represent a smaller share of sales, but it can remain strategically and technologically significant.
Musk Offers to Cancel Unwanted Government Contracts
Musk’s November 6 comments followed renewed criticism of his companies’ ties to Washington.
In an exchange on X, he said he would be prepared to cancel government contracts that federal agencies did not want.
The statement came shortly after Democrats secured control of both chambers of Congress.
That election outcome could bring stronger scrutiny of federal spending, procurement decisions and potential conflicts of interest involving major government contractors.
However, Musk’s comment should not be mistaken for an actual cancellation.
No specific NASA or Pentagon contract was identified as terminated in the statement.
Contract cancellations are also governed by contractual provisions, procurement rules and agency requirements.
A company expressing willingness to end an agreement does not necessarily mean a government agency can immediately replace the services involved.
For missions involving astronauts, national-security satellites and specialized launch capabilities, replacement arrangements can be operationally complex.
Democrats’ Congressional Victory Changes the Political Environment
The November 3 midterm elections significantly changed Washington’s political balance.
Democrats won control of the incoming House and Senate, giving the opposition greater authority over legislative oversight and federal spending decisions.
The outcome could increase scrutiny of major companies associated with the Trump administration.
Musk spent heavily in support of Republican candidates during the election cycle.
According to reporting cited by Bloomberg, his political contributions exceeded $445 million.
As a result, the election has raised questions about whether the new Congress will scrutinize his companies more aggressively.
But congressional oversight is not the same as automatic cancellation of existing federal contracts.
Agencies continue operating under applicable procurement laws and contractual obligations.
Congress can investigate spending and influence future appropriations, but individual contracts have legal and operational requirements.
For SpaceX investors, the key question is how much future business could be affected by government policy.
Musk’s latest revenue forecast appears intended to demonstrate that the company’s overall growth no longer depends primarily on federal payments.
SpaceX Faces a New Kind of Financial Risk
Government contracts are often associated with relatively predictable payment arrangements, although they can involve political, budgetary and performance risks.
Commercial AI contracts involve a different set of uncertainties.
Customers may expand rapidly when demand is strong.
But they may also reduce spending, renegotiate agreements or switch providers as technology changes.
The market for AI computing has become increasingly competitive.
Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Oracle and specialized cloud providers are all investing heavily in computing infrastructure.
SpaceX’s AI business must compete within that expanding market.
It also needs to manage the cost of equipment that can become technologically outdated.
As WWC ONE MEDIA reported on SpaceX’s extraordinary $14.6-billion earnings performance and proposed AI infrastructure spending, the company’s planned capital expenditure is substantial.
Management has discussed spending as much as $35 billion to $40 billion in the fourth quarter.
These figures represent projected capital investment, not completed quarterly expenses.
The spending could support additional revenue, but the return on investment will depend on customer demand and execution.
Starlink Remains an Important Commercial Business
SpaceX’s connectivity division is another major source of revenue.
The division includes Starlink, the company’s satellite-based internet service.
Third-quarter connectivity revenue increased approximately 69% year over year to $5.2 billion.
Starlink has expanded consumer broadband access across numerous countries while also serving businesses and public-sector organizations.
Its satellite network can provide connectivity in areas where traditional infrastructure is limited or expensive.
The business benefits from recurring subscriptions, but it also requires ongoing investment in satellites, launches and network capacity.
SpaceX uses its own rockets to deploy a large proportion of the Starlink constellation.
Reuters reported in August that Starlink missions accounted for approximately 79% of Falcon 9 launches during the first part of 2026.
That demonstrates how closely the company’s launch and connectivity businesses are integrated.
The relationship can create operational advantages.
However, Starlink also faces competition, regulatory requirements and the cost of maintaining a rapidly expanding satellite network.
SpaceX Suppliers Still Depend on Defense and Launch Spending
SpaceX’s changing revenue mix could also influence how investors assess companies supplying the aerospace industry.
The company purchases components, manufacturing services and specialized equipment from numerous contractors.
As WWC ONE MEDIA examined in its coverage of SpaceX supplier Applied Aerospace & Defense, rising launch activity can create opportunities for businesses supplying hardware used in rockets, satellites and military aerospace programs.
However, a supplier’s exposure to SpaceX does not automatically mirror SpaceX’s financial performance.
Suppliers may also depend on defense budgets, aircraft manufacturing programs and other customers.
That distinction is important as SpaceX grows beyond its historical launch business.
The company’s expansion into AI computing does not mean its aerospace supply chain has become irrelevant.
It means investors increasingly need to evaluate several different businesses within the same corporate group.
SpaceX’s Board Changes Add Another Layer of Uncertainty
The government’s shrinking share of revenue comes amid broader corporate developments at SpaceX.
The company recently disclosed that Donald Harrison, a longtime Google executive, resigned from its board.
His departure took effect November 4, shortly after the US midterm elections.
SpaceX said the resignation did not result from a disagreement over company operations or policies.
As WWC ONE MEDIA reported on Harrison’s resignation and discussions involving a possible SpaceX–Tesla combination, investors are closely watching how Musk might organize his expanding technology businesses.
A potential merger remains speculative unless the companies announce a definitive agreement.
The board departure does not establish that any transaction has been approved.
Nevertheless, governance and capital allocation have become important issues because SpaceX is now pursuing substantial investments across several industries.
Investors must consider how the company’s leadership balances AI expansion, satellite services and space exploration.
What This Means for Investors in the Philippines
SpaceX’s transformation is relevant to investors following US technology stocks and the global artificial intelligence industry.
The company has evolved beyond rocket launches into a business with substantial AI computing and satellite connectivity operations.
That diversification creates new growth opportunities.
But it also introduces different risks.
An aerospace business depends partly on launch schedules, contracts and technical execution.
An AI infrastructure company depends heavily on computing demand, chip technology, electricity costs and large customers.
For Philippine investors with exposure to US equities or global technology funds, the broader lesson is that revenue growth and diversification should be examined alongside customer concentration and capital expenditure.
There is no verified indication that Musk’s November 6 statement directly changes Starlink service arrangements or pricing for Philippine customers.
Any local effect would depend on separate commercial and regulatory decisions.
Could SpaceX’s Government Revenue Fall Below 5%?
Musk’s longer-term forecast is especially ambitious.
He expects government payments to account for less than 5% of SpaceX revenue within approximately one year.
That could happen if commercial AI and connectivity revenue grow much faster than government payments.
It could also result from a decline in government-related revenue.
Those are different scenarios with different implications.
The latest public statement does not provide a complete forecast of government payments in dollar terms.
It therefore cannot establish whether NASA and Pentagon spending on SpaceX will decrease, remain stable or increase during the next year.
Investors should monitor future financial reports to determine the actual trend.
Three Possible Outcomes for SpaceX
Scenario 1: AI growth reduces government dependence further.
Strong demand for computing services could push federal payments below 5% of revenue without requiring major changes to NASA or Pentagon contracts.
Scenario 2: Commercial customer concentration creates instability.
If a large AI customer reduces spending, SpaceX could experience more volatility in revenue and earnings despite having a diversified set of business segments.
Scenario 3: Government work remains strategically important.
SpaceX could continue providing essential launch and communications services to federal agencies even as those activities represent a smaller proportion of total sales.
These are possible outcomes, not guaranteed forecasts.
The Bigger Question: Is SpaceX Becoming an AI Company First?
Elon Musk’s November 6 declaration highlights one of the most striking changes in the modern technology industry.
SpaceX was once known primarily as a rocket-launch company serving NASA, defense agencies and commercial satellite operators.
Today, its revenue is increasingly driven by AI computing and satellite connectivity.
Government payments accounted for approximately 16.6% of revenue in the third quarter.
Musk now expects the share to fall below 10% in the fourth quarter and below 5% within a year.
Meanwhile, the Super Intelligence division generated $7.56 billion in quarterly sales, and Anthropic has become the company’s largest individual customer.
For Musk, the figures support the argument that SpaceX has developed substantial commercial businesses beyond its original government partnerships.
But for investors, they raise a different question.
Reducing dependence on federal contracts may lower one kind of risk while increasing exposure to the highly competitive and capital-intensive AI industry.
SpaceX’s revenue transformation is real, but Musk’s future government-revenue percentages remain forecasts rather than confirmed results.
The company’s next challenge will be proving that its rapid AI expansion can generate sustainable profits without creating excessive reliance on a small number of customers.
And as Musk challenges Washington to cancel any contracts it no longer wants, one question could define SpaceX’s future:
Has Elon Musk built a technology empire powerful enough to thrive with minimal government revenue—or could SpaceX’s extraordinary dependence on the AI computing boom become a greater financial risk than the NASA and Pentagon contracts it is rapidly outgrowing?
