HONG KONG / SHANGHAI / NEW YORK — November 4, 2026 | WWC ONE MEDIA | Global Business, Banking & Financial Markets
Wall Street’s multibillion-dollar gamble on China is finally beginning to deliver results.
After years of disappointing returns, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over Beijing’s economic policies, some of America’s largest investment banks are reporting extraordinary profit growth from their mainland Chinese securities businesses.
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have emerged as major beneficiaries of the turnaround.
Goldman Sachs’ mainland securities subsidiary recorded approximately 1.46 billion yuan in net profit for 2025, a 194% increase from the previous year. JPMorgan’s comparable business earned approximately 984 million yuan, up 280%.
The gains reflect a recovery in Chinese stock trading, stronger brokerage revenues and growing demand from institutional investors seeking access to China’s financial markets.
Morgan Stanley and UBS also benefited from the improvement.
According to Bloomberg’s November 3 feature, the results suggest that Wall Street’s long-term investment in China’s financial sector is beginning to pay off after years of difficult expansion.
But beneath the impressive earnings figures lies a more complicated reality.
China’s stock market has weakened again in 2026, investment banking remains highly competitive, and foreign financial institutions still face considerable restrictions and commercial challenges.
While the largest international banks are generating record profits, several smaller foreign-invested brokerages continue losing money.
With Beijing attempting to revive investor confidence and Washington maintaining a difficult relationship with China, can Wall Street’s biggest banks sustain their newfound success—or will another market downturn expose the risks behind their China ambitions?
Goldman Sachs Emerges as a Major Winner in China
Goldman Sachs has become one of the clearest beneficiaries of China’s recovering capital markets.
Its mainland securities business generated approximately 2.58 billion yuan in operating revenue during 2025, according to Chinese industry data.
Net profit increased 194% to approximately 1.46 billion yuan.
The business benefited from higher stock-market activity, stronger institutional brokerage revenues and investment-related transactions.
Goldman’s Chinese subsidiary provides services to domestic and international investors, including securities trading, research and capital-markets activities.
The recovery demonstrates the potential financial benefits of establishing a substantial presence in one of the world’s largest investment markets.
But the figures require careful interpretation.
The 1.46-billion-yuan net profit was earned by Goldman’s mainland securities subsidiary.
It is not the total profit generated by Goldman Sachs globally.
Nor does it represent the bank’s complete revenue from all activities involving Chinese companies in Hong Kong or other international financial centers.
Those operations may be reported through different legal entities and business segments.
Nevertheless, the mainland performance represents a significant improvement in a market where international banks previously struggled to achieve attractive returns.
JPMorgan’s China Profit Surges 280%
JPMorgan Chase also reported exceptional results.
Its mainland securities operation generated approximately 1.88 billion yuan in revenue during 2025, an increase of around 94%.
Net profit rose 280% to approximately 984 million yuan.
The performance marked the subsidiary’s fifth consecutive profitable year, according to Chinese financial reporting.
JPMorgan’s presence in China reflects a long-term strategy of expanding its services to multinational corporations, institutional investors and Chinese companies.
In 2021, the bank became the first foreign financial institution to receive approval for full ownership of a mainland Chinese securities joint venture.
The approval was an important development because foreign banks had historically been required to operate securities ventures alongside local partners.
Full ownership provided JPMorgan with greater control over its Chinese business.
But that control did not guarantee immediate profitability.
The bank had to build client relationships, recruit experienced employees and compete against established domestic securities firms.
The latest results suggest that those investments are beginning to produce stronger returns.
Why JPMorgan Stayed Despite US–China Tensions
JPMorgan’s strategy has been shaped by the belief that China remains too important to abandon.
In October 2025, Reuters reported that senior executives from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs reaffirmed their commitment to operating in China despite worsening relations between Washington and Beijing.
JPMorgan Vice Chairman Daniel Pinto acknowledged that the bank’s Chinese business could have been considerably larger under more favorable geopolitical conditions.
Nevertheless, he emphasized that the company intended to continue investing while carefully managing risks.
Goldman Sachs President John Waldron similarly reaffirmed the firm’s commitment to the market.
The statements illustrated a key strategic calculation.
International banking relationships are difficult to establish and may take decades to develop.
Companies cannot necessarily leave a major financial market during a period of political tension and expect to recover their position easily when conditions improve.
WWC ONE MEDIA previously explored JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon’s broader geopolitical thinking in Jamie Dimon Wants a Massive U.S.-Europe Free-Trade Deal — But Europe Would Have to Reinvent Its Economy First.
That report examined his support for stronger Western economic cooperation amid competition with China.
The two positions are not necessarily contradictory.
JPMorgan can support greater economic resilience in the United States and its allies while continuing to serve legitimate customers in Chinese financial markets.
The challenge is balancing commercial opportunity with geopolitical risk.
Foreign Brokerage Profits More Than Quadruple
Goldman and JPMorgan were not the only international firms to report stronger results.
A South China Morning Post review of 13 overseas-invested securities companies found that their combined net profits increased more than fourfold in 2025 to approximately 2.65 billion yuan.
The improvement followed a recovery in equity trading activity.
More investors returned to Chinese stock markets, and market volatility created additional trading opportunities.
Higher transaction volumes helped brokerage businesses earn more commissions and related revenue.
But the overall recovery was uneven.
Seven of the 13 firms in the newspaper’s sample still reported net losses.
This illustrates why industrywide profit growth can be misleading when viewed without company-level detail.
A small number of highly successful banks can account for most of the sector’s profits while others continue struggling.
For foreign investors evaluating the Chinese banking market, size, market access and established client relationships remain important competitive advantages.
UBS and Morgan Stanley Join the Recovery
Swiss banking giant UBS also recorded substantially higher profits in its mainland securities operations.
Chinese industry reporting indicated that UBS Securities generated approximately 730 million yuan in 2025 net profit, up 387% from the previous year.
Revenue increased to approximately 1.89 billion yuan.
Morgan Stanley Securities reported approximately 139 million yuan in net profit, an increase exceeding 660%.
Its revenue reached approximately 524 million yuan.
The results demonstrate that the market recovery benefited several business models.
UBS gained from stronger brokerage and wealth-related activities.
Morgan Stanley benefited from investment banking, fixed-income transactions and proprietary trading.
However, its percentage profit growth should be considered alongside its smaller earnings base.
A sharp percentage increase from relatively low prior-year profits does not necessarily mean a company has become more profitable in absolute terms than a larger rival.
The results reinforce the importance of comparing both growth rates and actual financial amounts.
Why China’s Financial Opening Is Finally Paying Off
China began allowing foreign financial institutions greater control over local securities businesses in 2020.
The reforms removed important ownership restrictions and created opportunities for international companies to operate wholly owned subsidiaries.
For Wall Street, this represented a major strategic opening.
Foreign banks could expand their Chinese operations without necessarily relying on majority-controlled domestic joint ventures.
However, regulatory permission alone did not guarantee commercial success.
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted business activity, while China’s property downturn and weaker stock markets reduced investment opportunities.
International banks also faced competition from large Chinese securities companies with established customer networks and close relationships with domestic corporations.
The recent profit recovery suggests that some foreign institutions have successfully navigated those challenges.
But the competitive environment remains demanding.
Foreign-invested securities firms still represent a relatively small portion of China’s overall brokerage industry.
China’s Domestic Banks Are Also Being Strengthened
The recovery among international banks comes as Beijing pursues a broader effort to strengthen its domestic financial system.
In September, China announced a major capital-support initiative involving state-owned banks and insurers.
WWC ONE MEDIA examined the policy in China Pumps US$54 Billion Into Banks and Insurers in Major Financial Powerhouse Push.
That report described a 360-billion-yuan capital injection intended to strengthen major financial institutions.
The initiative reflects Beijing’s ambition to develop more resilient banks and support lending and investment.
But it also illustrates the difficult environment facing the financial sector.
China’s property-market downturn, uneven household spending and pressure on corporate profitability have created challenges for lenders and investors.
Foreign investment banks can benefit from active capital markets even when the broader economy is struggling.
However, weaker economic growth can eventually reduce corporate financing demand and investor confidence.
Trading Revenue Becomes More Important Than Traditional Deal Fees
One of the most important features of Wall Street’s China recovery is the growing contribution of trading and brokerage income.
Historically, international investment banks sought to earn substantial fees from initial public offerings, mergers, acquisitions and other corporate transactions.
Those opportunities remain important.
But Chinese domestic securities firms continue to dominate many local underwriting activities.
Foreign banks face challenges winning large mandates in a highly competitive market.
The recovery in share trading has therefore become especially valuable.
Investment banks can generate revenue when institutional clients purchase and sell securities.
Market volatility can increase transaction activity, even when share prices are falling.
However, volatility does not guarantee higher profits.
Trading businesses also face market risk, and periods of falling asset prices can reduce customer appetite.
For the leading foreign banks, the challenge is expanding beyond a narrow dependence on trading activity.
Beijing’s Stock Market Decline Threatens the Comeback
Despite stronger results for 2025, the investment environment has become more difficult in 2026.
Reuters Breakingviews reported on November 3 that China’s CSI 300 stock index had declined approximately 13% during the year.
The downturn has increased pressure on Beijing to stabilize financial markets.
The People’s Bank of China has moved to strengthen measures intended to provide liquidity to financial institutions and support equity purchases.
Authorities are also encouraging corporate share buybacks.
The initiatives are designed to restore confidence and reduce pressure on stock valuations.
However, market-support measures do not automatically improve corporate earnings.
Share prices may recover temporarily while underlying businesses continue facing weak demand and declining profitability.
For JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and other foreign brokers, the danger is that lower investor confidence could eventually reduce trading activity and capital-market transactions.
China Warns That AI Investment Is Becoming Too Concentrated
Artificial intelligence has become another major influence on Chinese financial markets.
Technology companies have attracted substantial investment as China seeks to compete in semiconductors, advanced computing and AI applications.
But officials have warned that enormous capital flows into a relatively small number of businesses could create financial risks.
WWC ONE MEDIA covered those warnings in China Warns AI Investment Is Becoming Too Concentrated — But Is the Bigger Risk a New Tech Bubble?.
The report examined concerns about leverage, rapid expansion and concentrated technology-sector valuations.
For investment banks, the AI boom creates opportunities involving stock offerings, acquisitions and financing.
But the same investment activity could produce losses if asset prices become disconnected from sustainable earnings.
That risk matters particularly when financial institutions rely on capital-market activity to generate revenue.
A technology-stock downturn could reduce investor confidence and complicate the financing plans of Chinese companies.
Goldman Sees Opportunities Beyond China
Goldman Sachs is also benefiting from strong global demand for corporate financing.
At a financial summit in Hong Kong, chief executive David Solomon described demand for artificial intelligence-related transactions as robust despite recent market volatility.
WWC ONE MEDIA examined his comments in Goldman Sachs CEO Sees Explosive Demand for AI Megadeals Despite Tech Stock Selloff — But Could a Trillion-Dollar Financing Boom Turn Into Wall Street’s Next Crisis?.
The report explored opportunities in corporate debt, equity financing and mergers and acquisitions.
Goldman’s global third-quarter 2026 results also demonstrate the importance of active financial markets.
The bank reported approximately $18.68 billion in quarterly revenue and $5.29 billion in profit.
However, these are groupwide results.
They should not be confused with the much smaller profit recorded by its mainland Chinese securities subsidiary in 2025.
The distinction matters because different businesses operate across different jurisdictions and reporting periods.
Chinese AI Shares Face Another Valuation Test
The recent weakness in Chinese technology shares highlights the risks confronting financial institutions.
WWC ONE MEDIA previously reported on the downturn in China’s AI Hardware Selloff Deepens as Valuation Fears Hit Tech Darlings — But the Earnings Boom Isn’t Over Yet.
That analysis examined how investors were reassessing valuations after a period of strong optimism about artificial intelligence.
The current market environment is particularly sensitive to expectations about future technology demand.
If companies deliver strong earnings, investor confidence could recover.
But weaker results or lower growth forecasts could intensify selling pressure.
For international brokers, this environment presents opportunities and risks.
More volatile markets can produce additional trading activity.
However, a prolonged decline can weaken wealth management, investment banking and client confidence.
Citigroup’s China Expansion Shows Competition Is Growing
Other Wall Street banks are also seeking greater access to China’s financial markets.
In September, Reuters reported that Citigroup expected Chinese regulatory approval for a wholly owned mainland securities business.
The bank had applied for the license in 2021.
More recent Financial Times reporting indicates that Citigroup has since received regulatory approval.
The approval could allow Citi to offer additional services involving securities trading, underwriting and institutional investors.
For established players such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, the arrival of another major competitor may increase pressure on pricing and market share.
But growing competition can also improve the range of services available to Chinese companies and global investors.
The ultimate impact will depend on licensing conditions, staffing, client demand and the broader market environment.
Why China’s Economic Weakness Still Matters
The recovery in investment-bank profitability does not mean the wider Chinese economy is experiencing a uniform rebound.
Consumer spending remains uneven.
The property sector continues to face substantial difficulties.
Some manufacturers are experiencing intense price competition and weaker profit margins.
At the same time, exports and technology-related industries remain important sources of activity.
For foreign banks, these competing trends create a complicated investment environment.
A company can generate substantial trading revenue from volatile financial markets while the underlying economy struggles.
But long-term banking opportunities ultimately depend on businesses investing, expanding and raising capital.
If corporate earnings remain weak, demand for new financing may also suffer.
This is why investors should distinguish the strong financial results reported for 2025 from expectations about future growth.
The US–China Relationship Remains a Major Risk
Geopolitical tensions continue influencing the decisions of major international banks.
Trade restrictions, technology controls and disagreements over national security have complicated the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.
Financial institutions operating in both countries must comply with applicable rules and sanctions.
They must also assess whether geopolitical developments could affect customers, investments or access to financial markets.
JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have emphasized their commitment to China while recognizing the need for careful risk management.
But political developments could still change the commercial environment.
New restrictions might reduce cross-border investment activity.
Conversely, more stable relations could encourage companies and investors to expand international transactions.
Neither outcome is guaranteed.
The Biggest Question: Can Wall Street Sustain Its China Profits?
The results reported by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and UBS show that international banks can generate substantial profits in China’s financial markets.
Their success reflects years of investment, greater ownership freedom and the recovery in securities trading.
But maintaining that performance may be more difficult than achieving it.
Chinese stocks have weakened again.
Beijing is intervening to stabilize markets.
Several foreign-invested brokerages remain unprofitable.
And international banks face growing competition from established Chinese financial institutions and new foreign entrants.
For investors, the important indicators will include brokerage revenue, trading profitability, investment-banking mandates, capital-market activity and the regulatory environment.
The recovery may continue if Chinese markets stabilize and corporate financing demand strengthens.
However, a prolonged equity downturn could reduce the returns generated by the same businesses that performed so well last year.
The Bottom Line: Wall Street’s Patience Pays Off, but the Biggest Test Is Still Ahead
After years of uncertain returns, Wall Street’s leading investment banks are finally reporting significant profits from their mainland Chinese securities operations.
Goldman Sachs earned approximately 1.46 billion yuan in 2025, while JPMorgan generated approximately 984 million yuan.
UBS and Morgan Stanley also recorded sharp improvements.
The figures demonstrate that China’s financial opening has created meaningful opportunities for some international institutions.
But the benefits remain concentrated among the strongest competitors.
Many smaller foreign-invested securities firms continue losing money, while China’s stock-market weakness and broader economic challenges threaten the recovery.
Wall Street’s long-term China gamble is beginning to deliver. Yet the next chapter will depend on whether the country’s capital markets can remain active and profitable despite economic weakness and geopolitical tension.
As Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan celebrate extraordinary profit growth in China, will Beijing’s efforts to restore investor confidence unlock another decade of expansion—or could the next stock-market slump wipe out the gains Wall Street spent years building?
