The Visayas could continue experiencing power shortages and rotational brownouts for the next two years unless additional generating capacity comes online, as electricity demand continues to grow faster than available supply.
An official of the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines said the region’s power situation remains tight because generation has not kept pace with rising demand. The warning comes as several generating units remain unavailable, leaving the grid with limited reserves during periods of high consumption.
Demand Is Outpacing Supply
NGCP Systems Operations Manager Erwin Bugawisan said electricity demand in the Visayas has increased by as much as 165% since 2009, while supply has grown by only about 130%.
The gap has become particularly evident since 2019, when generation growth began to stagnate while electricity consumption continued increasing. NGCP has warned that the region now lacks sufficient generation to comfortably meet demand.
The imbalance has already contributed to recurring yellow and red alerts and rotational outages. When available generation falls short of demand and reserves are exhausted, distribution utilities may be instructed to implement manual load dropping to protect the wider grid.
Power Plants Remain Unavailable
NGCP has said the Visayas currently needs replacement power because several generating plants have experienced simultaneous outages. Its contracted ancillary services remain operational, but the available backup capacity is not enough to compensate for multiple generating units going offline at the same time.
NGCP spokesperson Cynthia Alabanza compared the situation to having several tires go flat simultaneously: backup services can help stabilize the system, but they cannot replace a large amount of missing generation indefinitely.
The problem is further complicated by the limited availability of alternative power that can be imported into the region.
Mindanao Could Provide Less Help
The Visayas has been able to draw electricity from Mindanao through the interconnected grid, with additional generating plants coming online in Mindanao after 2019.
However, NGCP forecasts that Mindanao’s electricity supply and demand could reach equilibrium by 2028. If that happens, the region may no longer have excess power available to send to the Visayas.
That would leave the Visayas with greater pressure to secure its own generation capacity just as demand continues to rise.
New Projects Seen as Critical
Energy Secretary Sharon Garin has expressed confidence that additional generating capacity, including renewable-energy projects, will become available before 2028. The government is also pursuing green energy auctions and engaging with developers planning new power facilities.
Solar projects are contributing to the increase in installed capacity, but NGCP has noted that variable renewable energy does not produce at its maximum rated capacity at all times. This means additions to installed capacity do not automatically translate into the same amount of dependable power available during peak demand.
For consumers and businesses across the Visayas, the immediate challenge is therefore not simply building more power plants but ensuring that enough dependable generation becomes available before demand growth further widens the supply gap.
Unless new capacity arrives and existing generating units are restored, the region could remain vulnerable to tight reserves, grid alerts and rotational brownouts through the coming years.
