NEW DELHI — Chinese President Xi Jinping is heading to India for the BRICS summit as wars, energy pressures and deep geopolitical rivalries threaten to overshadow what could be one of the most consequential gatherings yet for the expanded bloc.
Xi is expected to arrive in New Delhi on Saturday for the two-day BRICS summit, marking his first visit to India since 2019 and his most significant diplomatic return to the country since relations between the two Asian powers plunged after a deadly border clash in 2020.
The summit comes at a particularly difficult moment for BRICS. The wars involving Ukraine and Iran, tensions between the United States and China, energy security concerns and global trade disputes are expected to dominate discussions among the bloc’s leaders.
The gathering brings together an increasingly diverse group of countries whose interests do not always align.
Xi-Modi Meeting Could Become the Summit’s Biggest Story
One of the most closely watched developments will be a potential face-to-face meeting between Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
China’s Foreign Ministry said Friday that Beijing and New Delhi are arranging bilateral talks between the two leaders, with Beijing signaling that it wants to strengthen communication and cooperation while managing outstanding differences.
The meeting would carry considerable significance.
China and India have spent years trying to stabilize relations following the deadly 2020 confrontation along their disputed Himalayan border. While diplomatic contacts have increased and some restrictions affecting travel have eased, major disagreements remain over the border, trade and strategic influence in Asia.
Xi’s return to India therefore represents more than a routine BRICS appearance. It could provide a test of whether the recent diplomatic thaw between the two nuclear-armed neighbors can translate into concrete progress.
Wars Threaten to Expose BRICS’ Internal Divisions
The geopolitical backdrop may prove even more challenging.
The expanded BRICS grouping now includes 11 countries, representing a substantial share of the world’s population and economic output. But its growing membership has also brought together governments with sharply different foreign-policy priorities.
The war in Ukraine remains a major fault line.
Russia remains one of India’s most important strategic partners, while New Delhi has sought to maintain relationships with Moscow, Washington and European capitals simultaneously. India has generally called for dialogue and diplomacy rather than openly taking sides in the Ukraine conflict.
The conflict involving Iran presents an additional challenge.
Iran is now a BRICS member, while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also part of the expanded grouping. Their differing interests and relationships with the United States, Israel and Iran make it difficult for BRICS to produce a unified response to the Middle East conflict.
Analysts quoted by international media have warned that the wars could expose the limits of BRICS’ ability to act as a cohesive geopolitical bloc.
India Faces a Delicate Balancing Act
For Modi’s government, the summit is an opportunity to strengthen India’s influence while avoiding the impression that BRICS is becoming an explicitly anti-Western alliance.
India has expanded strategic cooperation with the United States, Japan, Australia and European countries while maintaining longstanding relationships with Russia and other non-Western powers.
That balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult as geopolitical tensions intensify.
The Indian Express reported that the China-India relationship is one of the central issues shaping this year’s summit, with New Delhi attempting to engage Beijing while continuing to protect its own strategic interests.
The two countries have shared interests in resisting excessive dependence on Western economic systems, but they remain strategic competitors.
BRICS Wants More Influence—But Can It Stay United?
Another major issue expected to feature prominently at the summit is the future of the global economic system.
BRICS has increasingly pushed for greater representation for developing countries in international institutions and has discussed reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar in international trade and finance.
But replacing the dollar is a complicated proposition. BRICS members have different currencies, economic systems and political interests, while the dollar remains deeply embedded in global financial markets.
The bloc’s expansion has given it greater economic and political weight, but analysts say its influence will ultimately depend on whether its members can translate that size into practical agreements.
A Crucial Moment for Xi—and for BRICS
Xi’s return to New Delhi comes at a time when both China and India are attempting to navigate an increasingly fragmented world.
For China, repairing ties with India could help prevent New Delhi from moving even closer to Washington and other Western partners.
For India, engaging Xi provides an opportunity to manage tensions with its largest Asian strategic rival while demonstrating that New Delhi can maintain relationships across competing geopolitical camps.
And for BRICS, the summit may reveal whether its growing membership is becoming a source of strength—or an obstacle to collective action.
With wars raging, trade tensions rising and global alliances shifting, the biggest question facing the leaders gathering in New Delhi may not be what BRICS can announce.
It may be whether the increasingly divided bloc can agree on anything at all.
And with Xi and Modi preparing to meet face-to-face, the most important developments could happen away from the main BRICS stage.
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