SEOUL — A new estimate from South Korea has put North Korea’s possible nuclear arsenal at 80 to 120 warheads, a figure substantially higher than the 57 nuclear weapons recently cited by U.S. President Donald Trump.
South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back told lawmakers on Thursday that North Korea is generally estimated to possess between 80 and 120 nuclear weapons. However, he stressed that the figure is based on estimates from private research organizations and cannot be officially confirmed by South Korea’s military.
The discrepancy comes at a particularly sensitive moment, with Trump seeking to revive direct diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Trump said Wednesday that he expects to meet Kim later this year and claimed North Korea has 57 “very powerful” nuclear weapons. His unusually specific figure immediately drew attention because the U.S. government does not publicly release an official estimate of Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal.
Why the numbers are so difficult to verify
North Korea’s nuclear program is notoriously opaque, making it impossible for outside governments and researchers to know the precise number of assembled warheads.
Different organizations therefore produce different estimates based on satellite imagery, assessments of North Korea’s uranium-enrichment and plutonium production, missile capabilities, nuclear tests and other intelligence.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated in its 2026 assessment that North Korea had possibly assembled around 60 nuclear warheads as of January 2026 and possessed enough fissile material to produce at least 30 more. SIPRI also said Pyongyang continues to accelerate production of fissile material.
That makes the South Korean 80–120 figure considerably higher than SIPRI’s estimate — but it does not necessarily mean either figure is definitively correct.
Trump’s 57-warhead figure raises another question
Trump’s statement adds another layer to the uncertainty.
Reuters reported that the U.S. government does not publicly publish an official estimate of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. A 2025 Congressional Research Service report cited nongovernmental experts who estimated that North Korea had produced enough fissile material for up to 90 warheads, while believing that approximately 50 may have actually been assembled.
SIPRI’s latest estimate is somewhat higher at around 60 assembled warheads.
Trump did not publicly explain the source of his 57 figure.
For that reason, the numbers should be treated as estimates rather than a confirmed inventory.
Nuclear arsenal becomes central to renewed Trump-Kim diplomacy
The nuclear estimates are emerging as Trump attempts to reopen diplomacy with Kim.
Trump said he expects to meet the North Korean leader later in 2026, reviving memories of their high-profile meetings in 2018 and 2019. Those talks ultimately collapsed after Washington and Pyongyang failed to reach an agreement over sanctions relief and North Korea’s nuclear program.
Trump has also recently ordered a reduction in joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises, describing the drills as hostile toward North Korea.
Pyongyang, however, has not responded with the enthusiasm Trump may have hoped for.
Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un’s sister and a senior North Korean official, said the shortened exercises remained provocative and aggressive. She also said she was unaware of recent communications between Trump and Kim, despite Trump’s assertion that he had received a response from the North Korean leader.
North Korea continues expanding its nuclear capabilities
The wider picture is also significant.
SIPRI says North Korea continues to develop its nuclear capabilities as part of its stated objective of expanding its nuclear arsenal. The institute estimates that Pyongyang has around 60 assembled warheads and enough fissile material for at least 30 additional weapons.
The country has also continued developing ballistic missile systems, including newer solid-fuel and maneuverable missile technologies, increasing concerns about the survivability and potential reach of its nuclear force.
North Korea’s growing military cooperation with Russia has further complicated the regional security environment, while Pyongyang has continued to reject calls to abandon its nuclear capabilities.
South Korea still rejects becoming a nuclear-armed state
Despite the growing estimates, Seoul has maintained its longstanding policy against developing its own nuclear weapons.
Ahn reiterated that South Korea cannot develop nuclear weapons and said Seoul would continue relying on the U.S. nuclear umbrella. He also said South Korea does not officially recognize North Korea as a nuclear-weapon state under its existing policy.
That position could become increasingly difficult to maintain politically if estimates of North Korea’s arsenal continue to rise while confidence in the U.S.-South Korean security relationship is tested.
The bigger concern may be what happens next
The immediate issue is not whether North Korea has exactly 57, 80 or 120 nuclear warheads.
The more important reality is that North Korea has an expanding nuclear weapons program, and the precise size of its arsenal remains uncertain.
At the same time, Trump is signaling a willingness to meet Kim again, while Pyongyang continues to insist on its own security demands and has shown little indication that it is prepared to simply surrender its nuclear capabilities.
That leaves a potentially consequential question hanging over any future Trump-Kim meeting:
Would the next round of diplomacy try to eliminate North Korea’s nuclear arsenal — or find a way to manage a nuclear capability that is becoming increasingly difficult to reverse?
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