TAIPEI — Any conflict across the Taiwan Strait would have devastating consequences for the global economy and could have a greater economic impact than World War II, the top US representative in Taiwan has warned.
Raymond Greene, director of the American Institute in Taiwan, made the remarks on Wednesday, Sept 9, during a defence forum in Taipei.
Greene said preserving peace across the Taiwan Strait was one of the most urgent issues facing the region, warning that the consequences of a military conflict would extend far beyond Taiwan and China.
Warning of enormous economic consequences
Greene said the human cost of a conflict would be immense, but the economic consequences could also be felt around the world.
Taiwan plays a critical role in global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor industry, while the Taiwan Strait is surrounded by some of Asia’s most important shipping routes.
A major conflict could therefore disrupt international trade, technology production and financial markets on an unprecedented scale.
Greene warned that the global economic fallout could surpass the impact of World War II.
Peace remains a top US priority
The United States does not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but it remains the democratically governed island’s most important international backer and a major supplier of defensive weapons.
Greene said the US administration considers preserving peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific a major priority.
He stressed the importance of avoiding misunderstandings and miscalculations that could push tensions into a wider conflict.
US-China summit seen as important opportunity
Greene also pointed to an upcoming summit between the United States and China as an opportunity to reduce the risk of miscalculation.
Relations between Washington and Beijing have remained strained over several issues, with Taiwan continuing to be among the most sensitive.
China considers Taiwan part of its territory and has not ruled out using force to bring the island under Beijing’s control.
Taiwan rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims and maintains that only its people can decide the island’s future.
Taiwan steps up defence spending
Taiwan has been increasing efforts to strengthen its military capabilities and broader societal resilience amid growing pressure from China.
Taiwanese Vice-President Hsiao Bi-khim also emphasised the importance of stronger defence capabilities and national preparedness in maintaining peace.
The government has committed more than NT$1 trillion in defence spending, reflecting growing concerns over the military threat from across the Taiwan Strait.
China maintains reunification stance
Beijing has continued to insist that reunification with Taiwan is inevitable and regards the issue as a core national interest.
Chinese officials have repeatedly opposed foreign military support for Taiwan and criticised US arms sales and diplomatic engagement with the island.
Taiwan, however, has rejected Beijing’s proposed “one country, two systems” framework and says it will continue strengthening its ability to defend itself.
Why the Taiwan Strait matters to the world
A conflict over Taiwan would not be limited to the two sides of the strait.
Potential consequences could include:
- Major disruptions to global semiconductor supplies
- Severe interruptions to international shipping
- Turmoil in global financial markets
- Wider military involvement by regional powers
- Significant economic losses worldwide
- A humanitarian crisis affecting millions of people
The Taiwan Strait has therefore become one of the world’s most closely watched geopolitical flashpoints.
The bottom line
The top US representative in Taiwan has warned that a conflict across the Taiwan Strait would be catastrophic, potentially causing greater damage to the global economy than World War II.
Raymond Greene said preserving peace in the region remains a major US priority and pointed to upcoming talks between Washington and Beijing as an opportunity to prevent dangerous miscalculations.
As Taiwan increases defence spending and China continues to assert its claim over the island, concerns over stability in the Taiwan Strait remain high.
The warning is clear: a conflict over Taiwan would not only reshape Asia — its consequences could be felt across the entire world.
WWC ONE MEDIA J.M.D
Leave a Reply