NEW YORK — The race to become the next United Nations secretary-general is entering a critical new stage as the UN Security Council prepares to hold its second informal straw poll on Friday, August 21, testing whether the early frontrunners can build enough support to survive the highly political selection process.
Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan, the current head of UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and a former vice president of Costa Rica, emerged as the early leader in the first Security Council poll on July 30.
But her lead is far from guaranteeing victory.
The 15-member Security Council is expected to use Friday’s second poll to gauge whether support for Grynspan and her closest rivals is strengthening — or whether the race could eventually produce a compromise candidate. Reuters and other international outlets have reported that diplomats do not expect Friday’s vote alone to produce a decisive winner.
Grynspan leads — but the numbers tell only part of the story
The first straw poll gave Grynspan the strongest opening position, with 10 “encourage” votes, one “discourage” vote and four “no opinion” votes, according to diplomatic sources cited by multiple outlets.
Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett followed with nine encourage votes, while Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, received seven.
Grynspan’s result is particularly significant because nine affirmative votes are required for the Security Council to recommend a candidate. However, that is only one part of the equation: a candidate must also avoid opposition from any of the Council’s five permanent members — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States.
That makes the first-place finish less conclusive than it may initially appear.
The identity of individual voters in the early straw polls is not publicly disclosed, meaning a candidate can appear strong overall while potentially facing opposition from one of the five permanent, veto-wielding powers.
As diplomatic analysts have pointed out, the most important question may not be who has the most “encourage” votes, but where the “discourage” votes are coming from.
Eight candidates are now in the race
The contest has also expanded since the first poll.
The candidates currently in the field include:
- Rebeca Grynspan — Costa Rica
- Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett — Guyana
- Rafael Grossi — Argentina
- Michelle Bachelet — Chile
- María Fernanda Espinosa — Ecuador
- Macky Sall — Senegal
- Olara Otunnu — Uganda
- Ivonne Baki — Ecuador
Baki became the eighth candidate after entering the race in August. Her candidacy is particularly notable because she is the second Ecuadorian in the field and joined the contest after the first straw poll.
Her late entry means Friday’s poll could provide an important first indication of whether she can gain traction quickly.
Why Grynspan’s lead matters
Grynspan’s candidacy carries several potentially powerful advantages.
She is a senior UN official with extensive experience in international development and diplomacy. She also fits the growing push for a woman to finally occupy the UN’s top post.
In its 80-year history, the United Nations has never had a woman serve as secretary-general.
Her candidacy also aligns with expectations that the next secretary-general could come from Latin America and the Caribbean, although regional rotation is an informal political tradition rather than a legally binding rule.
If Grynspan ultimately wins, she would make history as the UN’s first female secretary-general.
But her frontrunner status has also placed her under greater political scrutiny.
Rodrigues-Birkett remains a serious challenger
Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett is arguably the most immediate threat to Grynspan’s early lead.
She finished only one “encourage” vote behind Grynspan in the first poll, receiving nine positive votes.
That puts her within the basic nine-vote threshold — although, like every candidate, she would still need to avoid a veto from a permanent Council member.
Her campaign therefore remains highly competitive, particularly if Grynspan’s support slips in subsequent rounds.
Grossi could become the dark horse
Rafael Grossi, Argentina’s candidate and the current head of the IAEA, finished third in the opening poll with seven “encourage” votes.
His candidacy has attracted attention because of his experience dealing directly with some of the world’s most dangerous geopolitical flashpoints, including nuclear security and the war in Ukraine.
Seven votes leave him short of the nine needed for a Security Council recommendation, but several rounds of informal polling are expected. A candidate who can convert “no opinion” votes into support could rapidly change the race.
The biggest wildcard: the five veto powers
The Security Council’s permanent members hold the key to the entire contest.
The United States, China, Russia, France and Britain can each block a candidate.
That means the eventual winner needs more than broad popularity. The candidate must also be acceptable to governments whose geopolitical interests frequently collide.
This is why the early straw polls are better understood as temperature checks rather than elections.
The ballots are informal and non-binding. Council members indicate whether they “encourage,” “discourage” or have “no opinion” about each candidate.
Later rounds are expected to provide greater insight into the positions of the permanent members through differently colored ballots, although the identity of a specific country voting against a candidate will still remain undisclosed.
Why the timing matters
The stakes extend far beyond personalities.
Guterres is scheduled to complete his second and final five-year term on December 31, 2026, after a decade leading the United Nations.
His successor will inherit an organization facing wars, geopolitical fragmentation, financial pressure, demands for institutional reform and growing questions over the effectiveness of multilateral diplomacy.
The next secretary-general will also confront pressure to make the UN more efficient while preserving its role as a central forum for international cooperation.
Several candidates have therefore emphasized reform, conflict prevention and restoring confidence in the organization.
Uganda’s Olara Otunnu, for example, has called for sweeping institutional reform and warned that the UN cannot simply continue with business as usual. Ecuador’s Ivonne Baki has similarly campaigned on conflict prevention and UN renewal.
Friday’s poll may narrow the field — but it will not settle the race
Diplomatic observers expect the second straw poll to provide a clearer picture of which candidates are gaining momentum and which campaigns may be losing viability.
But a decisive breakthrough is not expected.
The process could continue through additional rounds before the Security Council eventually agrees on a candidate to recommend to the 193-member General Assembly.
Once the Council reaches that point, the General Assembly formally appoints the secretary-general.
For now, Grynspan has the strongest opening position.
But history offers a warning: leading an early straw poll does not guarantee becoming secretary-general.
The crucial question is whether she can maintain broad support while remaining acceptable to all five permanent members.
And that is the part of the race the public still cannot see.
The next UN chief may already be emerging — but the decisive vote could be taking place in diplomatic rooms far from the public spotlight.
Leave a Reply