TAIPEI — Taiwan is heading toward a demographic transformation that could reshape its economy, workforce, healthcare system and even its long-term defense capacity, with new government projections showing the island’s population could fall to just 12.15 million by 2075.
The latest forecast from Taiwan’s National Development Council (NDC) projects a 48% population decline over the next five decades, from about 23.19 million in 2026. More striking than the headline population loss is what Taiwan’s population could look like when that decline is complete: seniors would outnumber working-age residents, while children would make up less than 5% of the population.
The new figures substantially raise the stakes of a problem Taiwan has been confronting for years — one that now extends far beyond simply convincing couples to have more children.
Taiwan could have more seniors than workers
By 2045, Taiwan’s population is projected to fall below 20 million for the first time since 1989, reaching about 19.98 million. People aged 65 and older would already account for roughly 37% of the population, compared with just 5.2% for children under 15.
By 2075, the imbalance becomes far more dramatic.
The NDC projects only about 5.13 million people aged 15 to 64, compared with approximately 6.43 million people aged 65 and older. Taiwan would have just 585,000 children under 15. Seniors would represent 52.9% of the entire population, while the working-age population would fall to 42.3% and children to only 4.8%.
Taiwan’s median age could reach 67.1 years by then.
That means population decline is only part of the story. Taiwan would also have to support a vastly older society with a dramatically smaller workforce.
The workforce crunch could arrive much sooner
The pressure will not wait until 2075.
Starting in 2037, more than half of Taiwan’s working-age population is expected to be between 45 and 64 years old, according to the NDC. Over the full 50-year projection period, the number of working-age residents could shrink by roughly 10.67 million — about 67%.
For one of Asia’s most technologically important economies, that carries unusually large consequences.
Taiwan sits at the heart of the global semiconductor and artificial-intelligence supply chains. Its economic model requires not only factory workers, but large numbers of engineers, technicians, researchers and other highly trained specialists.
A smaller labor pool could intensify competition for those workers while pushing manufacturers toward automation, higher productivity, delayed retirement and greater recruitment of foreign talent. Taipei Times reported that businesses are likely to face increasing pressure to keep older workers employed and accelerate automation as the domestic labor supply contracts.
Bloomberg-linked reporting similarly noted that the working-age population could shrink by nearly two-thirds, raising questions about how Taiwan will sustain both its industrial economy and its aging population.
A birth rate that stunned earlier forecasts
Behind the worsening projections is an exceptionally low fertility rate.
Taiwan’s total fertility rate fell to 0.695 children per woman in 2025, down sharply from 0.885 in 2024 and well below the replacement level of roughly 2.1.
It was also significantly below the 0.87 rate previously expected by planners, forcing officials to revise their long-term assumptions.
The NDC has now lowered its longer-term fertility assumptions. Its high, medium and low scenarios envision fertility rates of approximately 1.1, 0.8 and 0.6 respectively by 2075, compared with higher assumptions used in previous projections.
There is another problem that financial incentives alone cannot quickly solve: the number of potential mothers is itself falling.
The population of Taiwanese women aged 20 to 49 has declined since peaking in 2005, while the share of married women in the same age group has also decreased. That means even a future improvement in individual fertility decisions would occur within a progressively smaller childbearing-age population.
Births could fall below 100,000 this year
Taiwan recorded only 107,812 births in 2025, marking the 10th consecutive annual decline.
The NDC now estimates that births could fall to between 92,000 and 97,000 in 2026, with a midpoint forecast of just 94,000.
The monthly figures already point in that direction. Taiwan recorded only 6,523 births in February 2026, followed by 6,832 in May — among the lowest monthly totals ever recorded.
At the other end of the demographic spectrum, Taiwan formally became a “super-aged society” after the share of people aged 65 and older reached 20.06% at the end of 2025. The total population stood at about 23.30 million, down more than 101,000 from the previous year.
One worker could eventually support more than one dependent senior
The fiscal implications may prove as serious as the labor shortage.
The NDC projects Taiwan’s overall dependency ratio — children and seniors for every 100 working-age residents — rising from 55.2 in 2035 to 136.6 by 2075.
Meanwhile, the potential support ratio is projected to fall to just 0.8 working-age people for every person aged 65 or older.
That could increase pressure on pensions, healthcare, long-term care and public finances while simultaneously reducing the proportion of the population generating labor income and paying taxes.
Taiwan is spending heavily to try to change the trajectory
President Lai Ching-te’s government has already elevated the population issue into a major national policy priority.
In May, the government unveiled an 18-measure population strategy covering childbirth, childcare, education, workplace flexibility and housing.
Among the proposals are expanded assisted-reproduction subsidies, higher childbirth benefits, childcare assistance, education support, more generous parental leave and housing incentives for families with children.
The package includes plans for monthly support for children, expanded public childcare and tax incentives for companies that provide childcare services. Officials estimated the wider program would involve roughly NT$380 billion in planned funding, with substantial additional annual spending.
But the latest NDC figures show why the government faces an unusually difficult challenge.
Taiwan is no longer merely trying to reverse a temporary drop in births. It is attempting to slow a demographic cycle in which fewer young adults lead to fewer marriages, fewer potential mothers, fewer births and ultimately an even smaller generation of future parents.
And the consequences could reach well beyond childcare and pensions.
Bloomberg’s coverage noted that Taiwan’s smaller pool of young people could eventually affect military manpower because the country still relies partly on conscription while facing sustained military pressure from China.
The demographic question is therefore becoming intertwined with Taiwan’s economic competitiveness, semiconductor leadership, national finances and security.
The biggest number in the NDC report may be 12.15 million.
But the more consequential question is what happens long before Taiwan reaches it: Can one of the world’s most strategically important technology economies reinvent itself quickly enough to function with millions fewer workers?
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