LONDON — The world’s oil market is running dangerously low on its emergency cushion, with energy executives warning that more than 1 billion barrels have already been drawn from global inventories amid prolonged supply disruptions linked to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said fewer than 6 billion barrels of commercial oil inventories remain globally — and most of that supply is not practically accessible. He estimated that only about 10% or less can currently be used by the market.
The warnings came as energy executives gathered at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, highlighting how the depletion of stored crude is leaving the global market more vulnerable to another major supply disruption.
Global Oil Buffer Is Shrinking
Oil inventories normally provide a crucial buffer when production or transportation is disrupted. But that cushion has been heavily depleted during this year’s energy crisis.
Nasser said more than 1 billion barrels had been released, mainly from commercial onshore inventories, since the Middle East crisis began.
The problem is that not every barrel sitting in storage can immediately reach consumers. Some oil is effectively unavailable because it is trapped in pipelines or tank bottoms, while government regulations can also restrict access to emergency reserves.
With global oil demand estimated at around 102 million barrels a day, even a relatively small additional disruption could therefore put fresh pressure on supplies and prices.
IEA Preparing Another Emergency Release
The International Energy Agency is preparing to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel as governments attempt to ease tight fuel markets.
The release follows an unprecedented 400-million-barrel emergency agreement announced in March during the early stages of the Middle East supply crisis. It remains unclear how much of the latest 100 million barrels will consist of previously committed volumes that have not yet reached the market.
The G7 agreed on the additional release last week while also pledging not to impose energy-export restrictions among member countries.
Why Rebuilding the Stockpile Could Take Years
Energy executives say releasing reserves may provide short-term relief, but replacing the lost inventories is a much bigger challenge.
Nasser previously warned that replenishing global crude and fuel stocks could take up to two years, particularly while the market continues to meet normal demand.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth also said the loss of global supply buffers has made the oil market more fragile and effectively increased the price floor for crude.
The concern extends beyond oil. Natural-gas inventories are also depleted, leaving markets vulnerable to sharp price increases if winter demand becomes unusually strong. Petronas CEO Tengku Muhammad Taufik warned that a particularly cold winter could create severe pressure in the gas market during the first quarter of 2027.
The Next Test Could Come This Winter
The global energy system is now increasingly dependent on continued oil exports from the Middle East to prevent inventories from falling even further.
At the same time, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since October 1982, according to U.S. Department of Energy data.
That leaves governments facing a difficult balancing act: use emergency reserves to protect consumers from immediate shortages, or preserve what remains of the stockpile in case another major disruption hits.
For now, oil is still reaching global markets. But with the inventory cushion rapidly shrinking, the next serious supply shock could arrive at a very different market — one with far fewer barrels available to absorb it.
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