US officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, despite long-standing assessments that Chinese President Xi Jinping wants the People’s Liberation Army to be capable of taking the island by force by 2027.
The updated assessment, based on discussions with current and former US officials, points to delays in China’s military readiness and Beijing’s interest in the outcome of Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election as factors shaping the timing of any potential military action.
The 2027 benchmark has often been described as a target for military preparedness rather than a fixed deadline for an invasion. US intelligence agencies said in their annual threat assessment released earlier this year that Chinese leaders did not currently have a plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 and had no fixed timeline for achieving unification.
That assessment remains important because China’s military has continued developing capabilities that could be used in a conflict over Taiwan. The US intelligence community has said Beijing currently prefers to pursue unification without military force if possible, while continuing to prepare for the possibility of conflict.
Several US officials cited China’s ongoing anti-corruption campaign as one factor that has affected military preparations. A series of investigations and removals involving senior Chinese military officials has created disruption within the People’s Liberation Army and affected the pace of some military development.
The assessment also points to Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election as a potential factor in Beijing’s calculations. Chinese officials may want to see whether Taiwan’s next government takes a position that Beijing considers more conducive to its goal of eventual unification.
Taiwan’s current government, led by President Lai Ching-te and the Democratic Progressive Party, supports maintaining the island’s separate political system and has rejected Beijing’s sovereignty claims. China regards Taiwan as part of its territory and has repeatedly refused to rule out using force.
The United States remains Taiwan’s principal international security partner and weapons supplier despite the absence of formal diplomatic relations. Washington has maintained a policy of helping Taiwan strengthen its ability to defend itself, while deliberately leaving unclear how it would respond to a Chinese attack.
A separate US intelligence assessment released in March said Chinese leaders did not currently plan to execute an invasion in 2027. It also said Beijing was likely to continue seeking conditions for eventual unification without conflict while the PLA continued developing military capabilities for a possible future operation.
Military readiness remains a central issue in any assessment of a potential Taiwan conflict. US officials said China would face an extremely complex operation if it attempted a large-scale invasion across the Taiwan Strait, requiring its forces to coordinate rapidly and overcome significant logistical and military challenges.
The latest assessment therefore does not remove the possibility of future military action. Instead, it indicates that US officials currently see the 2027 readiness benchmark differently from a fixed invasion deadline, with China’s military preparations, Taiwan’s political developments and US-China relations all potentially affecting Beijing’s calculations.
