SOUTHEAST ASIA — A powerful El Niño is strengthening across the Pacific, raising concerns over extreme heat, prolonged dry spells, water shortages, agricultural losses and wildfire risks across Southeast Asia as governments prepare for potentially difficult conditions extending into 2027.
The warning comes as climate agencies increasingly point to an unusually strong El Niño developing in the second half of 2026.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Aug. 13 that El Niño is strengthening, with more than a 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–27. NOAA also estimated a 69% probability that the October–December period could produce an event stronger than previous El Niños recorded since 1950.
That does not mean every country will experience the same weather conditions—or that a record-strength El Niño automatically means record-breaking impacts. But scientists warn that the climate pattern increases the likelihood of weather disruptions typical of El Niño, particularly in vulnerable parts of Southeast Asia.
Thailand Faces Growing Heat and Water Risks
Thailand is among the countries preparing for a potentially difficult period.
Thai authorities and climate experts have warned that El Niño could bring hotter and drier conditions, increasing pressure on agriculture and water resources. The Bangkok Post reported that Thailand could feel the effects of a Super El Niño from around October, with impacts potentially lasting into the early part of 2027.
Earlier reporting by the Straits Times also highlighted concerns about a possible “dual water crisis,” with Thailand’s authorities preparing for water shortages in vulnerable areas.
The risks are particularly significant for farmers dependent on predictable rainfall.
Thailand’s agricultural sector could face higher production costs, reduced yields and water shortages if dry conditions persist. Nation Thailand reported that the country’s agriculture sector could face losses potentially reaching 62 billion baht as heat, drought and crop risks increase.
The Heat Threat Goes Beyond Thailand
The concern is regional.
The World Meteorological Organization said in July that a strong El Niño was developing and expected to strengthen during August–October 2026, with above-normal temperatures expected across much of the world. The agency also warned that El Niño’s rainfall pattern can increase drought risk in some regions while bringing wetter conditions elsewhere.
For Southeast Asia, the ASEAN Climate Outlook has pointed to above-normal temperatures across much of the region. Earlier regional forecasts also indicated below-normal rainfall in parts of the Maritime Continent, although conditions vary considerably from country to country.
That variability is important.
El Niño does not mean that every location will simply become hotter and drier at the same time. Its influence depends on geography, monsoon behavior, ocean temperatures and other climate patterns.
Still, the combination of an already warmer climate and a strengthening El Niño could amplify the risks facing densely populated cities and agricultural areas.
Bangkok Among Cities Facing Serious Heat Exposure
A recent Oxford University study highlighted Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City among Southeast Asian urban areas facing particularly high heat risks as El Niño develops alongside rapid urbanization and rising background temperatures.
For cities, the concern is not simply the afternoon temperature.
Hotter conditions can increase electricity demand as households and businesses use more air-conditioning. At the same time, drought can reduce water availability and place additional stress on power generation, agriculture and municipal supplies.
The result can become a chain reaction:
Heat → higher water demand → lower water availability → agricultural stress → higher food costs.
Food Security Is Another Major Concern
Agriculture is one of the sectors most exposed to El Niño.
Reuters reported in June that dry weather associated with the strengthening climate pattern was already disrupting crop planting in parts of Asia, raising concerns about food supplies.
But the global food system is not entering the crisis completely unprepared.
A separate Reuters analysis in August found that improvements in agricultural technology, irrigation, drought-tolerant crops, precision farming and relatively strong global grain inventories could help cushion some of the effects of a powerful El Niño.
That means the eventual economic impact will depend not only on how strong El Niño becomes, but also on how long it lasts, where rainfall deficits occur and how governments and farmers respond.
The Haze Risk Is Also Rising
Hot and dry conditions can create another regional problem: wildfire and haze.
ASEAN environmental authorities have warned of increased transboundary haze risks as dry conditions intensify. Satellite monitoring has already detected elevated hotspot activity in parts of the region.
If vegetation dries out and fires become more frequent, smoke can travel across national borders, affecting air quality, public health, transportation and economic activity.
This is particularly concerning because haze episodes do not respect political boundaries.
What About the Philippines?
The Philippines is also monitoring the strengthening El Niño.
DOST-PAGASA said in its August 2026 monitoring that moderate El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific and that climate models indicate the event could continue through the first half of 2027, with the possibility of reaching a very strong state before the end of 2026.
Earlier PAGASA forecasts had already warned that El Niño could persist into early 2027.
However, the Philippines’ experience can differ substantially from Thailand’s because of its geography, monsoon patterns and tropical cyclone activity.
That distinction matters when interpreting regional forecasts.
Why This El Niño Is Getting So Much Attention
The current event is drawing unusual attention because of its projected strength.
NOAA’s latest assessment says the probability of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter is above 90%. It also estimates a 69% chance of a historic event during October–December based on its strength metric.
The WMO had already warned in June that El Niño had an 80% likelihood of occurring during June–August, with probabilities of continuing through at least November near or above 90%.
The scientific picture has therefore shifted from “El Niño might develop” to “El Niño is here and strengthening.”
The remaining question is how severe its regional consequences will become.
The Bigger Question Is What Happens Next
For Southeast Asia, the coming months will be critical.
Governments are already monitoring water supplies, agricultural conditions, heat exposure and wildfire risks. Farmers face difficult decisions over planting schedules and water use. Cities must prepare for increased heat stress and potential pressure on electricity and water systems.
And climate scientists emphasize that El Niño is only one part of the equation.
Global warming is raising the baseline temperature, meaning an El Niño event now occurs on top of a warmer climate than decades ago. That can make extreme heat more dangerous even when the underlying climate phenomenon itself is not solely responsible for a particular event.
The warning for Southeast Asia, therefore, is not simply about one exceptionally hot season.
It is about whether a stronger El Niño, a warming climate, water stress and agricultural vulnerability collide at the same time.
And that is the part governments, businesses and communities across the region will be watching most closely as 2026 moves toward its final months.
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