Four and a half years into the war, Russia remains dangerous and powerful. But behind the missiles, territorial gains and battlefield pressure, a more troubling question is emerging for the Kremlin: what is Moscow’s realistic path to victory?
Russia is not collapsing, and anyone predicting an imminent military or economic breakdown would be getting ahead of the evidence.
Moscow still controls large areas of Ukrainian territory, retains a much larger population and resource base than Ukraine, and continues to launch devastating drone and missile attacks across the country. Russian forces have also continued making advances in parts of southeastern Ukraine, demonstrating that the Kremlin remains capable of sustaining pressure on the battlefield.
But military power and strategic success are not the same thing.
Four and a half years after President Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia increasingly faces a difficult reality: continuing the war is costly, but ending it without achieving major political goals could be equally difficult.
That is the trap now confronting Moscow.
Russia’s War Machine Is Still Moving—But at a High Price
Recent battlefield developments offer a mixed picture.
Russia continues to attack Ukrainian positions and has claimed territorial gains during its summer campaign. At the same time, the Institute for the Study of War has documented continuing Russian advances alongside a prolonged campaign of drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure.
The Kremlin’s strategy appears increasingly focused on pressure rather than a decisive breakthrough—wearing down Ukrainian defenses, targeting infrastructure and forcing Kyiv to exhaust its air-defense resources.
That strategy can inflict enormous damage. Russia’s latest attacks have once again demonstrated its ability to launch large, complex waves of drones and missiles, while Ukraine continues to face pressure over supplies of advanced air-defense interceptors.
But the war has also exposed a fundamental problem for Moscow: small territorial gains do not automatically translate into a strategic victory.
The Economic Pressure Is Becoming Harder to Ignore
The warning signs are also growing inside Russia’s economy.
According to the Asia Times analysis, Russia entered 2026 facing weak growth, expensive credit and exceptionally high government spending. The country’s budget deficit had already exceeded its original full-year target by mid-year, while oil and gas revenues were down compared with the previous year.
Those pressures do not mean Russia is running out of money tomorrow.
Authoritarian governments have powerful tools for keeping themselves financially afloat. Moscow can raise taxes, borrow more, redirect civilian spending, pressure banks and tolerate higher inflation.
But every one of those choices carries a cost.
The longer the war continues, the more Russia must devote to maintaining its military machine—and the less flexibility it has to protect the broader economy from the consequences.
Ukraine’s deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are adding another layer of pressure. Recent reports have described disruption at Russian refineries and growing strain on fuel supplies, while Russia has taken extraordinary measures to protect and manage critical infrastructure affected by drone attacks.
The goal of Ukraine’s campaign is not necessarily to force Russia into immediate surrender. It is to make an already expensive war even more difficult and costly to sustain.
Putin’s Manpower Problem May Be Even More Difficult
Then there is the human cost.
Russia has avoided another full-scale mobilization despite the enormous demands of the war, relying heavily on recruitment, financial incentives and volunteers to replenish its forces.
That approach has allowed the Kremlin to avoid the political shock of another nationwide mobilization. But it may also be becoming increasingly expensive and difficult to maintain.
A second major mobilization could provide Moscow with more manpower—but it could also bring domestic political consequences that Putin has worked hard to avoid.
This leaves the Kremlin with an uncomfortable choice: pay more and recruit harder, mobilize more openly, or accept limits on what its military can achieve.
None of those options is easy.
Ukraine Has Problems Too—and That Matters
The story is not one of a Russian defeat waiting to happen.
Ukraine faces serious challenges of its own, including manpower shortages, political pressure and a continued dependence on Western support for critical weapons systems. A former Ukrainian defense minister recently warned that Kyiv needs significant reforms and strategic changes to avoid slowly losing the war.
Ukraine’s air defenses are also under sustained pressure as Russia intensifies long-range strikes.
That means the outcome of the war remains deeply uncertain. Russia’s difficulties do not guarantee a Ukrainian victory.
The Real Problem for Russia: What Happens Next?
That may be the most important question of all.
Russia can continue fighting. It can spend more, recruit more soldiers and intensify attacks. It may even capture additional territory.
But what would a decisive Russian victory actually look like—and how much more would it cost to achieve?
The longer the conflict continues, the more Moscow risks becoming locked into a war that it can sustain but cannot easily win on its original terms.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is betting that innovation, long-range strikes and continued European support can gradually increase the cost of Russia’s campaign.
For Putin, walking away without a major victory could be politically painful. Escalating the war could bring even greater economic, military and political risks.
That is why Russia’s position may be more complicated than a battlefield map suggests.
The Kremlin still has powerful options. But after years of war, the number of good options may be shrinking—and the next decision Putin makes could determine whether Russia escapes the trap or sinks deeper into it.
The Bottom Line
Russia remains a formidable military power and is capable of continuing the war for a significant period. But recent economic strains, manpower pressures, attacks on energy infrastructure and the absence of a clear path to a decisive victory are creating a more complicated strategic picture for Moscow.
The danger for Putin is not that Russia suddenly runs out of weapons or money.
It is that Russia keeps fighting—and discovers that every available path forward comes with a price the Kremlin can no longer easily afford.
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