MANILA, Philippines — The price of the Philippines’ staple food has started climbing again, with the average retail price of regular-milled rice reaching P49.61 per kilogram in the first five days of August, according to the latest data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
The increase is striking when compared with the same period last year.
The PSA reported that regular-milled rice averaged P40.61 per kilo in August 2025, meaning the latest price was about 22.2% higher year-on-year.
But the numbers also reveal an important distinction: the 22% figure is not a one-month price surge. On a shorter-term basis, rice prices moved only modestly higher—from P49.30 per kilo in the second phase of July to P49.61 in early August.
That difference matters because it shows that the latest development is less about rice suddenly becoming 22% more expensive overnight and more about prices remaining substantially higher than they were a year ago.
The September harvest is now in focus
The latest increase comes as the country approaches the next major rice harvest season.
Agriculture officials have been preparing for possible supply pressures linked to the developing El Niño threat, which could affect agricultural production in the months ahead.
The government has therefore continued to emphasize maintaining adequate rice stocks rather than relying solely on the upcoming domestic harvest.
The Philippines imported a record 2.75 million metric tons of rice during the first half of 2026, according to data from the Bureau of Plant Industry reported by The Philippine Star. That was a 20.1% increase from the 2.29 million MT imported during the same period in 2025.
Those imports represented about 57% of the Department of Agriculture’s then-projected full-year import volume of 4.8 million MT. Officials said the shipments were intended to help balance supply and prices amid higher fuel and fertilizer costs and concerns over El Niño.
Government chooses supply security over an import halt
Instead of shutting the door on imports during the harvest season, the government has indicated that it will continue allowing rice shipments into the country as it prepares for potential El Niño-related production risks.
The Philippine News Agency reported that the government would not impose a temporary rice import ban, citing the need to prepare for the possible effects of a strong El Niño.
This represents a delicate balancing act.
More imports can help protect consumers from supply shortages and sudden price spikes, but a flood of cheaper foreign rice can also put pressure on local farmers’ farmgate prices.
That is why the government has also been adjusting its support for domestic palay producers.
Farmers are also part of the equation
The National Food Authority is preparing to increase its buying price for locally produced palay ahead of the September harvest.
The Philippine Star reported that the NFA planned to raise its minimum buying price to P21 per kilo, up from P17 per kilo previously, as part of efforts to support farmers facing higher production costs.
The policy highlights the government’s difficult task: keep rice affordable for consumers while ensuring farmers can still make money producing it.
Too little supply could push retail prices higher. But excessive imports or weak farmgate prices could discourage farmers from planting in the future.
It is not only rice getting more expensive
The PSA’s latest agricultural price report also showed mixed movements among other basic commodities.
During Aug. 1 to 5, galunggong averaged P241.67 per kilo, up from P238.62 in the second phase of July and P237.69 in the first phase of July. Cooking oil also rose to P200.04 per liter, compared with P199.44 in mid-July.
At the same time, not every food item became more expensive.
Fresh pork with bones fell to P301.06 per kilo, down from P306.16 in mid-July. String beans also declined to P104.10 per kilo from P109.87, according to PSA data.
That means the latest figures do not point to a blanket surge in all food prices—but rice remains one of the most politically and economically sensitive commodities.
The global market adds another layer
The Philippines is heavily dependent on the international rice market, making global supply conditions an important factor in domestic prices.
Recent reports also indicate continued demand from the Philippines has been supporting rice exports from some regional suppliers. Myanmar, for example, has seen stronger rice demand connected to Philippine purchases, while international rice markets remain affected by shifting supply and weather conditions.
At the same time, global rice prices have not simply followed the Philippine retail trend. This is important because the 22% year-on-year increase in Philippine retail rice prices should not be interpreted as a 22% increase in global rice prices.
Domestic retail prices are influenced by several factors, including import costs, tariffs, transportation, milling, distribution, farmgate prices and local supply conditions.
What consumers should watch next
For Filipino households, the more important question may no longer be whether rice prices increased in early August.
They did.
The bigger question is whether the September harvest and continued imports will be enough to prevent another round of increases later in the year.
The government is betting on a combination of domestic procurement and imports to maintain supply while preparing for climate-related risks.
But with the PSA already showing rice prices roughly 22% higher than a year ago, the coming harvest will provide an important test of whether the current strategy can keep the country’s most important staple within reach of ordinary consumers.
For now, P49.61 per kilo is the latest national average—not a universal price tag at every market or store. Actual retail prices vary depending on rice variety, quality, location and seller.
And with the September harvest approaching, the next few months could determine whether August’s increase was merely a warning—or the beginning of another prolonged squeeze on the Filipino household budget.
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