MANILA — The Philippines’ power problem in the Visayas is no longer looking like a one-day shortage. A cascade of power-plant outages has repeatedly pushed the regional grid into red-alert territory, forced rotational brownouts and exposed just how little room the system has when major generating units suddenly fail.
On Friday, September 4, both the Visayas and Mindanao grids were placed under red alert after multiple generating plants went offline or operated below normal capacity.
The situation became particularly severe in the Visayas.
NGCP’s morning forecast showed 2,233 megawatts of available capacity against projected demand of 2,504 MW. But conditions deteriorated during the day: by 2 p.m., available generation had fallen to just 2,076 MW against demand of 2,506 MW, producing a roughly 430-MW gap even before reserve requirements were considered.
The Visayas red alert was eventually extended from 1 p.m. to 10 p.m., while manual load dropping — the technical term behind many rotational brownouts — was used to keep the grid stable.
This is no longer simply about electricity demand being high.
The bigger problem is that too much generating capacity is unavailable at the same time.
Nearly 1,000 MW Disappeared From the Visayas Grid
NGCP officials said approximately 972.6 MW of Visayas generating capacity was unavailable Friday, following additional plant trips and continued derating of other facilities.
Twelve generating units were on forced outage and another 16 were operating with reduced output, according to figures reported by The Freeman.
Among the major problem units were Therma Visayas Inc. Unit 1 and Panay Energy Development Corp. Unit 3, while outages or trips involving other generators — including Leyte geothermal and Cebu facilities — further tightened supply.
NGCP Assistant Vice President and Visayas system operations chief Neil Modena made an especially important distinction during a Cebu briefing:
The central problem is generation, not simply transmission.
The transmission lines exist to move electricity, but there is not enough available power to send through them when large generating units are simultaneously offline.
That distinction matters because adding transmission capacity alone cannot solve a shortage when power plants are not producing.
Mindanao Was Struggling at the Same Time
The problem became even more complicated because the Visayas normally receives electricity from neighboring grids.
On Friday morning, Mindanao itself had only 2,549 MW of available capacity against projected peak demand of 2,592 MW, forcing NGCP to place the island under red alert from 1 p.m. to 9 p.m.
Large coal facilities were also unavailable there, including GNPower Kauswagan units and Therma South Unit 2.
NGCP estimated around 784.5 MW was unavailable in the Mindanao grid because of outages and derated generation.
That created a damaging chain reaction.
When Mindanao has excess electricity, part of it can be transferred to the Visayas through the interconnection.
But when Mindanao itself does not have enough reserve capacity, there is little — or sometimes nothing — available to export.
NGCP specifically cited zero or unavailable imports from Mindanao as one reason the Visayas shortage became more severe Friday.
In other words, problems in one grid increasingly spill into another.
Friday’s Outages Were Not an Isolated Event
Perhaps the most worrying figure is not Friday’s megawatt shortage.
It is how often this has already happened.
Through September 3, NGCP data showed that the Visayas had recorded 93 yellow alerts and 30 red alerts in 2026.
Mindanao had recorded another 10 yellow and three red alerts.
After Friday’s additional alerts, The Philippine Star reported the Visayas tally had climbed to 94 yellow and 31 red alerts, while Mindanao had reached 11 yellow and four red alerts.
That means the Visayas alone has been placed under some form of grid alert more than 120 times this year.
A yellow alert does not necessarily mean blackouts are already occurring. It means operating reserves have fallen below required contingency levels.
A red alert is more serious: available supply is insufficient to cover demand plus the system’s regulating requirement, increasing the possibility that customers will have to be temporarily disconnected to protect the grid.
Why Rotational Brownouts Are Being Used
When electricity demand exceeds what generators can reliably provide, NGCP cannot simply allow the grid to continue operating normally.
If too much demand remains connected to insufficient generation, system frequency can deteriorate and potentially threaten a much larger outage.
That is why grid operators use Manual Load Dropping, or MLD.
Selected distribution utilities are instructed to temporarily reduce load, producing rotational brownouts in certain service areas so that the overall grid remains balanced.
On September 4, NGCP warned numerous utilities across Cebu, Negros, Panay, Bohol, Leyte and other areas that MLD could be required for hours.
Its advisory cited two main reasons:
limited generation and zero power imports from Mindanao.
For consumers, that translates into an unpleasant reality: one power plant failing hundreds of kilometers away can eventually contribute to their lights going out.
Cebu Is Particularly Exposed
Cebu has become one of the focal points of the shortage.
According to Modena, the province accounts for roughly half of total Visayas electricity demand, giving the availability of Cebu-based generating plants outsized importance to the regional system.
The repeated brownouts have become serious enough that Cebu Governor Pamela Baricuatro called energy and grid officials to an emergency meeting and ordered provincial government facilities to adopt conservation measures.
Under Cebu’s Takna Pagpawong Sa Suga, or TAPS, program, provincial government offices are required to reduce nonessential electricity consumption during a designated weekly hour, while businesses and households are encouraged to participate voluntarily.
The measure cannot replace hundreds of megawatts of missing generation.
But it illustrates how persistent the shortage has become.
One Coal Plant Could Make a Big Difference
One of the most closely watched generators is Therma Visayas Inc.’s 169-MW Unit 1 in Toledo City.
The plant has been among the major sources of unavailable capacity cited repeatedly by NGCP.
Recent reports indicate TVI Unit 1 is expected to return to service around September 11, although restoration schedules for damaged generators can change.
That one unit alone will not permanently solve the Visayas power problem.
But returning 169 MW to the system would significantly improve a grid that at times has been short by several hundred megawatts.
Other major plants also need to return and remain reliable.
That second requirement — remain reliable — may be just as important.
A grid can appear adequately supplied on paper, but repeated forced outages can eliminate its reserve margin within hours.
The Government Is Betting on Batteries
The Department of Energy is now trying to create another layer of protection.
Energy Secretary Sharon Garin says approximately 200 MW of battery energy storage is being worked on across the Visayas.
Plans outlined by the DOE call for battery systems distributed across Panay, Negros, Cebu and Bohol, with roughly 50 MW associated with each area.
These batteries do not generate electricity themselves.
Instead, they can store electricity when supply is plentiful and discharge it rapidly when the grid becomes tight.
That makes storage particularly useful for reserves and sudden generation losses.
DOE simulations indicate that the planned battery capacity could potentially reduce red and yellow alert occurrences by around 50% once connected, according to Power Philippines.
But that still does not solve the underlying problem of insufficient dependable generation.
Diesel Power Barges Are Being Considered as a Bridge
The government is also pursuing temporary generating capacity.
Garin has said the DOE is working on bringing in diesel power barges while waiting for longer-term plants and storage projects.
The objective is straightforward: create enough emergency capacity to stop the Visayas and Mindanao grids from repeatedly entering alert conditions.
But moving and commissioning power barges takes time.
And that has forced the Energy Department to move its timetable.
The government had initially hoped the power situation would improve by the end of August.
It didn’t.
Garin now says the goal is to resolve the recurring alert problem before Christmas.
That is a significant admission.
It suggests officials believe the Visayas and Mindanao could remain vulnerable for weeks — even if individual power plants return sooner.
The Long-Term Fix Is Still Years Away
Battery storage and barges are emergency tools.
The bigger solution is additional generating capacity.
DOE officials say new baseload projects are being lined up for 2028, 2029 and 2030, including proposed projects in Cebu and Panay.
Renewables are also expanding.
But the challenge for an island grid is not simply how much power can theoretically be generated over an entire day.
The system needs sufficient dependable capacity, reserves and flexibility at the exact hour demand peaks.
That is why batteries, interconnections, conventional plants and renewable generation all increasingly have to work together.
Saturday Brought Some Improvement — But Not Enough
There was one positive development on September 5.
Mindanao moved out of red-alert status and was placed under yellow alert from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m., with 2,726 MW available against projected demand of 2,644 MW.
Its unavailable capacity had declined to about 617.7 MW.
The Visayas, however, remained under pressure.
NGCP placed the Visayas under red alert from 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. Saturday, followed by yellow alert until 10 p.m.
Available capacity stood at 2,255 MW against expected peak demand of 2,432 MW, while roughly 797.8 MW remained unavailable because of forced outages and derated plants.
So the immediate situation has improved from Friday’s nine-hour red-alert episode.
It has not normalized.
The Bigger Question Isn’t When the Next Plant Comes Back
For consumers, the immediate hope is simple: get the broken generators operating again.
But the deeper issue is much harder.
A healthy electricity system needs enough reserves so that one or two unexpected plant failures do not immediately push an entire region toward rotational blackouts.
Right now, the Visayas has repeatedly shown that it does not have enough of that cushion.
Mindanao’s own shortages have made the weakness more visible because electricity that normally helps rescue the Visayas is sometimes unavailable precisely when it is needed most.
The September 11 target for another major generating unit to return could bring relief.
Battery storage could help.
Power barges could create additional breathing room.
But after more than a hundred grid alerts this year, the real test is no longer whether officials can end the next brownout.
It is whether the Philippines can build enough dependable power to stop the next broken plant from starting the entire cycle again.
WWC ONE MEDIA M.J.E
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