TEHRAN — Iran is signaling a major shift in its military strategy, warning that it could move from a largely defensive posture to a “fully offensive” one if diplomatic efforts with the United States fail — raising fresh fears that the conflict could widen across the Gulf and further disrupt the vital Strait of Hormuz.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran was prepared to take what it described as “timely and precise” military action to challenge the U.S. naval blockade if negotiations collapse. The warning came after a 60-day window for reaching a broader U.S.-Iran agreement expired without a breakthrough.
The development represents a potentially dangerous turning point in the conflict, which began with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. For months, Tehran had largely portrayed its attacks against U.S., Israeli and Gulf targets as retaliation. Iran’s latest rhetoric suggests it may now be seeking to take the initiative militarily.
Strait of Hormuz Becomes the Central Flashpoint
At the heart of the standoff is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
The June memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran was intended to halt military operations and provide a 60-day period for negotiating a broader settlement covering issues including Iran’s nuclear program and U.S. sanctions.
But the agreement quickly unraveled over competing interpretations of who should control and manage traffic through the strait.
Iran says provisions of the agreement give it a role in managing the waterway, while Washington rejects that interpretation. The dispute has contributed to continued attacks and uncertainty surrounding commercial shipping.
Before the war, roughly one-fifth of the world’s traded oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz, making any prolonged disruption a major concern for global energy markets.
Shipping Traffic Has Slowed Sharply
The military standoff is already having consequences far beyond the battlefield.
Reuters reported that only six commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, below the 10-day average of 11 vessels. Major shipping operators have increasingly avoided the waterway amid uncertainty over whether it is genuinely safe and open.
That uncertainty has pushed up risks for insurers, shippers and businesses that depend on energy and maritime trade.
The conflicting claims from Washington and Tehran are adding to the uncertainty. U.S. President Donald Trump has said the strait is open and operating, while Tehran maintains that it remains effectively closed until Washington meets conditions tied to the interim agreement.
UAE Cuts Economic Ties With Iran
The tensions have also begun to damage Iran’s relationship with neighboring Gulf states.
On August 19, the United Arab Emirates suspended trade and financial transactions with Iran until further notice, citing what it described as a military escalation by Tehran.
The move followed a UAE announcement that two ballistic missiles launched from Iran had been detected and assessed as targeting maritime traffic. Both missiles fell into the sea. Iran rejected the UAE’s account as baseless.
The consequences could be significant for Tehran.
Before the war, the UAE was one of Iran’s most important commercial partners and a major re-export hub that helped Tehran access goods and international commercial infrastructure despite U.S. sanctions. AP reported that the UAE accounted for more than 30% of Iran’s imports in 2024, according to World Trade Organization figures.
Gulf Shipping Is Already Under Pressure
The Strait of Hormuz has become a major battleground in the conflict.
AP reported that several vessels linked to Abu Dhabi’s state-owned energy company ADNOC have been attacked in the waterway during the conflict. Iran has not claimed responsibility for those attacks, although its Revolutionary Guards have previously threatened vessels associated with its adversaries or ships that fail to follow Iranian directives.
The wider disruption has created a difficult dilemma for Gulf states that depend heavily on the security of maritime trade while also maintaining varying degrees of economic and diplomatic relations with Tehran.
A Diplomatic Back Channel May Still Exist
Despite the increasingly aggressive rhetoric, diplomacy has not completely disappeared.
Reuters reported that the Trump administration had opened possible back-channel communications involving the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, with intermediaries reportedly carrying messages between Washington and senior Iranian officials.
Trump’s son-in-law and special envoy Jared Kushner also said communications between the U.S. government and different parts of the Iranian government were more extensive than they may have appeared publicly.
That creates a striking contradiction: publicly, Washington and Tehran are trading increasingly severe threats, while behind the scenes, channels of communication may still be operating.
Iran Faces Growing Economic Pressure
Tehran is also under mounting economic pressure.
The country entered the conflict with high inflation, a weakened currency, energy shortages and extensive sanctions. The war has added damaged infrastructure, disrupted trade and reduced production while increasing the cost of rebuilding.
The UAE’s decision to suspend economic and financial dealings could make those pressures even more severe because Dubai has historically served as a critical commercial gateway for Iranian businesses.
AP reported that the International Monetary Fund is forecasting Iranian inflation of nearly 70% this year, alongside an estimated 5.4% economic contraction.
Reports Point to a Wider Regional Risk
The danger may not be limited to Iran, the United States and the immediate Gulf region.
The Financial Times has reported that Iranian insiders say Tehran is considering potential military targets in southeastern Europe if the conflict escalates further. Those reports remain unconfirmed publicly and should be treated as an indication of possible planning rather than evidence that such attacks are imminent.
Meanwhile, Reuters has described the regional situation as increasingly resembling a conflict operating with its own momentum, with attacks, shipping disruptions and retaliatory measures developing faster than diplomatic efforts can contain them.
What Happens Next?
The immediate question is whether Iran’s threat to adopt a fully offensive military posture is intended primarily as leverage at the negotiating table — or whether Tehran is genuinely preparing for a new phase of military operations.
For now, there is no confirmed announcement of a new large-scale Iranian offensive.
But the warning comes at an especially sensitive moment: the U.S.-Iran negotiating window has expired, the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, Gulf states are taking tougher measures against Tehran, and both Washington and Tehran are publicly signaling that they are unwilling to accept the other’s terms.
The next major incident involving a military base, tanker or commercial vessel could therefore have consequences far beyond the immediate battlefield.
And with diplomacy appearing increasingly fragile, the question now is no longer simply whether the Iran-U.S. war will continue — but how far the next escalation could spread.
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