MANILA, Philippines — August 25, 2026 — A rain-soaked Tuesday is unfolding across large parts of Luzon as the southwest monsoon, or Habagat, continues to pull moisture over the country while weather authorities monitor two tropical cyclones and a low-pressure area outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
The immediate concern for millions of Filipinos, however, is not necessarily the three weather systems themselves.
It is the rain they could help sustain.
PAGASA said the Southwest Monsoon is affecting Luzon, bringing cloudy skies, scattered rain and thunderstorms to Metro Manila, Ilocos Region, the Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Cavite, Batangas and Rizal. Moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall could trigger flash floods and landslides, particularly in vulnerable communities.
And conditions were already prompting stronger warnings Tuesday morning.
Rainfall Warning Raised as Habagat Intensifies Over Parts of Luzon
At 8:00 a.m. Tuesday, PAGASA’s National Capital Region division placed Zambales and parts of Bataan — Dinalupihan, Hermosa and Morong — under a Yellow Rainfall Warning, indicating possible flooding in flood-prone areas.
The weather bureau also reported light to moderate rain, with occasional heavy downpours, affecting or threatening parts of Nueva Ecija, Metro Manila, Pampanga, Tarlac, Bataan and Bulacan.
For Metro Manila, affected areas cited in the advisory included Caloocan, Valenzuela, Malabon, Manila, Navotas and Quezon City.
That warning underscores the bigger concern surrounding Tuesday’s forecast: even though the major tropical systems being monitored remain outside PAR, the Habagat itself is capable of producing hazardous rainfall.
Typhoon Saudel, Formerly Obet, Is Now Outside PAR
One of the systems being watched is Typhoon Saudel, which carried the Philippine name Obet while inside PAR.
PAGASA said Saudel exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility at around 9:30 p.m. Monday, August 24.
As of 3:00 a.m. Tuesday, the typhoon was located approximately 1,180 kilometers east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon, packing maximum sustained winds of 150 kilometers per hour near the center and gusts of up to 185 km/h.
It was moving west-northwest at about 25 km/h.
Although Saudel is already outside PAR, PAGASA weather specialist Veronica Torres said its movement north of the Philippines could continue helping draw in the Southwest Monsoon.
That means a storm does not necessarily need to make landfall in the Philippines to influence weather conditions across the country.
Atsani Weakens — But PAGASA Isn’t Ruling Out a Move Toward PAR
A second system, Tropical Depression Atsani, was about 1,760 kilometers east of Northern Luzon as of 3:00 a.m.
PAGASA placed its maximum sustained winds at 55 km/h, with gusts reaching 70 km/h, while the system was moving northward at approximately 30 km/h.
Torres said PAGASA was not ruling out the possibility that Atsani could enter PAR, although its future track and intensity still require close monitoring.
International monitoring also confirms Atsani remained an active tropical system in the western North Pacific around this period, although different weather agencies can use slightly different classifications and wind estimates.
Former Tropical Depression Neneng Has Weakened Into an LPA
The third system is the remnant of Tropical Depression Gaenari, previously known locally as Neneng.
According to PAGASA’s update carried by GMA News, Gaenari had weakened into Low Pressure Area 08f and was located about 670 kilometers northwest of Itbayat, Batanes early Tuesday.
The weather bureau assessed that the system had a low chance of redeveloping into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
This is an important distinction: the original “two storms and one LPA” description does not mean three tropical cyclones are currently threatening the Philippines. Saudel and Atsani are tropical cyclones outside PAR, while former Neneng has already weakened into an LPA.
Where Will the Heaviest Rain Fall?
PAGASA said the western portions of Central and Northern Luzon have a greater chance of seeing stronger rainfall.
Around 50 to 100 millimeters of rain may fall over La Union, Benguet and Pangasinan during the day, according to PAGASA information reported by GMA News.
Meanwhile, the rest of Luzon may experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated showers or thunderstorms due to Habagat.
The rest of the Philippines is expected to see isolated rain showers or thunderstorms caused mainly by localized thunderstorms, with flash floods and landslides still possible during severe storms.
Rougher Seas Also Possible Around Luzon
PAGASA’s national forecast indicated moderate to strong southwesterly winds over Luzon, with coastal waters ranging from moderate to rough at around 1.5 to 3.4 meters.
Elsewhere in the country, winds are forecast to remain light to moderate with generally slight to moderate seas.
GMA News reported that PAGASA had not issued a gale warning as of Tuesday morning.
How Long Will the Habagat Rains Last?
The unsettled conditions may not disappear immediately.
PAGASA said the Southwest Monsoon could continue affecting a large portion of Luzon over the coming days. Its influence may begin weakening around August 29, although forecasts several days in advance can still change.
Metro Manila’s extended outlook also points to continued cloudy and rainy conditions through much of the week, with southwesterly winds remaining a factor.
Why This Weather Setup Matters
The bigger story is not simply that three systems are being watched on a weather map.
The concern is how their positions interact with the Southwest Monsoon, potentially feeding additional moisture into an already rain-prone Luzon.
For communities that have experienced repeated rainfall in recent weeks, saturated soil, swollen waterways and flood-prone roads can make even another round of moderate-to-heavy rain dangerous.
Residents — particularly those in low-lying, mountainous and landslide-prone areas — should therefore continue monitoring PAGASA rainfall warnings and local disaster advisories, rather than relying only on whether a tropical cyclone enters PAR.
Weather conditions and cyclone tracks can change quickly.
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