NEW YORK — Aryna Sabalenka is arriving at the 2026 US Open with a chance to enter one of the most exclusive clubs in women’s tennis. But unlike a few months ago, when the world No. 1 looked almost untouchable, her historic three-peat attempt now comes with serious questions about form, momentum — and even her hold on the top ranking.
The two-time defending US Open champion dismissed concerns over her recent slump ahead of the final Grand Slam of the season, insisting her confidence remains intact.
“Always confident,” Sabalenka told reporters in New York when asked about her mindset, according to an AFP report carried by Philstar.
That confidence could soon be tested.
A brilliant start to 2026 suddenly went cold
Sabalenka began the season looking like the dominant force in women’s tennis.
The 28-year-old won Brisbane, reached the Australian Open final before losing to Elena Rybakina, then completed the prestigious Indian Wells-Miami “Sunshine Double.” Her Miami triumph remains her most recent singles title.
Since April, however, the numbers tell a much different story.
Reuters reports that Sabalenka has posted a 17-7 record since the start of April, a surprisingly uneven stretch for a player who had established herself as the sport’s most consistent major contender.
She has also failed to reach a final during that period. The slide included a French Open quarterfinal exit, a fourth-round Wimbledon defeat to Naomi Osaka, and fourth-round exits at both the Canadian Open and Cincinnati.
That makes New York considerably more important than simply another title defense.
Sabalenka is chasing a piece of Serena Williams history
Sabalenka won the US Open in 2024 and 2025, meaning another championship would give her three consecutive titles at Flushing Meadows.
No woman has achieved that since Serena Williams won three straight from 2012 through 2014. Chris Evert went even further, winning four consecutive US Open championships from 1975 through 1978.
A Sabalenka victory in 2026 would therefore put her alongside Evert and Williams as the only women in the Open Era to win at least three consecutive US Open singles titles.
For a four-time Grand Slam singles champion, it would also deliver major No. 5 — and potentially transform what has so far been a frustrating second half of the season into another historic year.
Sabalenka acknowledged what joining those names would mean.
She described Evert and Williams as legends she grew up watching and said having her name mentioned alongside theirs would carry enormous significance.
But this US Open is about more than the trophy
There is another major storyline hanging over Sabalenka’s two weeks in New York:
Her world No. 1 ranking is under threat.
Australian Open champion Elena Rybakina enters the US Open with a realistic opportunity to take over the top position. The WTA’s official draw analysis says Rybakina can guarantee herself the No. 1 ranking by reaching the semifinals.
Reuters likewise describes Sabalenka’s ranking as vulnerable following her weaker second half of the season.
That changes the equation considerably.
Sabalenka isn’t simply attempting to make history in the tournament where she has been at her best. She is trying to rediscover her strongest tennis while the rest of the women’s field closes in.
Coco Gauff arrives with renewed momentum after winning Cincinnati, while Rybakina, Iga Swiatek, Jessica Pegula, Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova and others help make the women’s draw unusually deep.
Her draw could become dangerous quickly
Sabalenka will begin her singles campaign against Colombia’s Camila Osorio.
On paper, the defending champion will be heavily favored. But the path becomes increasingly complicated deeper into the draw.
The official WTA breakdown projects a possible third-round meeting with Barbora Krejcikova, while Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova could await Sabalenka in the quarterfinals.
Sky Sports similarly described Sabalenka as having a potentially difficult route despite beginning against Osorio.
Noskova, in particular, represents the kind of dangerous opponent Sabalenka would probably rather avoid during a period when her confidence is being tested. The 21-year-old arrives in New York as the reigning Wimbledon champion and No. 6 seed.
Sabalenka says the struggle could make her stronger
Sabalenka isn’t pretending the past several months have been ideal.
She acknowledged that she had been dealing with several issues and had not produced her best tennis, but framed the difficult run as something that could ultimately strengthen her.
She also said she has been concentrating on the mental side of her game and trying to reset ahead of New York.
That mental battle may ultimately determine whether her US Open dominance continues.
When Sabalenka is playing freely, few players on the women’s tour can match her combination of serve, first-strike power and relentless baseline aggression. But her recent losses have revived questions about whether frustration and inconsistency can creep into her game when matches tighten.
Reuters noted the same concern in its US Open preview, citing questions over Sabalenka’s ability to finish matches strongly during her recent downturn.
And that is what makes her 2026 US Open campaign so compelling.
Just months ago, a third straight New York championship might have seemed like the logical continuation of Sabalenka’s dominance.
Now it looks like something considerably harder:
a test of whether the world’s No. 1 player can rediscover herself at the one Grand Slam where she has repeatedly found her best tennis.
Win seven matches, and Sabalenka could leave New York with a fifth Grand Slam crown and a place beside Serena Williams and Chris Evert in US Open history.
Lose early, and the story could shift rapidly from a three-peat chase to a changing of the guard at the top of women’s tennis.
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