GENEVA — The world’s healthcare systems could face a growing staffing crisis over the next decade as both patients and health professionals age, with the World Health Organization warning that the global health workforce shortage could reach 11.1 million workers by 2030.
The warning comes as the WHO released its National Health Workforce Accounts: Health Workforce Levels and Trends 2026, its first annual global assessment of health-worker levels, trends and emerging workforce pressures.
One of the report’s most striking findings is that nearly one in four doctors globally is aged 55 or older, meaning many could reach retirement within the next decade. The figure rises to nearly one in three doctors in high-income countries, according to the WHO’s analysis of the latest available data from 122 countries.
And that is only one side of the problem.
A double pressure on healthcare systems
The WHO says healthcare systems are being squeezed by two demographic trends happening simultaneously: health workers are getting older while populations are also ageing.
An older population generally requires more healthcare services, increasing demand at the same time that experienced doctors, nurses and other professionals approach retirement.
The WHO projects that 67 countries could lack enough health workers by 2030 to maintain current population health needs. Reuters reported that maintaining the current health-worker-to-population ratio alone would require an additional 832,000 health workers.
That means the challenge is not simply about replacing retiring doctors. Health systems will also have to accommodate rising demand for care.
WHO health workforce officials described ageing as an increasingly important pressure on health systems and called for longer-term planning around education, employment, retention and workforce data.
The global workforce has grown — but shortages remain
The situation is not entirely negative.
According to WHO data, the global density of health workers covered by its analysis — including doctors, nursing and midwifery personnel, dentists and pharmacists — increased by 52% between 2006 and 2025, rising from 44.8 to 67.9 workers per 10,000 people.
The global health and care workforce now exceeds 70 million people.
But those gains have not been distributed evenly.
WHO data shows major differences between regions. Medical-doctor density is about 13 times higher in the WHO European Region than in the African Region, while nursing and midwifery density is roughly six times higher in Europe.
The result is a complicated global picture: the number of healthcare workers has increased substantially, yet some countries still face severe shortages and others are confronting an ageing workforce.
Why richer countries could face a retirement wave
High-income countries are particularly exposed to the ageing problem because a larger proportion of their doctors are older.
WHO estimates that almost one-third of doctors in high-income countries are older than 55 and could retire within the next decade.
Reuters reported that this could increase dependence on internationally recruited healthcare professionals, potentially placing additional pressure on countries that already have shortages of their own.
That creates a difficult workforce dynamic.
A country attempting to fill vacancies by recruiting healthcare professionals from overseas may improve its own staffing position, but large-scale international recruitment can also affect the workforce available in lower-income countries.
The issue therefore extends beyond individual hospitals or national healthcare systems.
Africa faces a particularly wide workforce gap
The WHO’s regional data highlights the scale of the inequality.
Africa has the lowest health-worker density among the WHO regions, while Europe has substantially higher concentrations of doctors, nurses and midwives. WHO says health-worker density remains strongly associated with national income.
Other research illustrates the economic and health consequences of the shortage.
The McKinsey Health Institute estimated in 2025 that the global healthcare workforce shortage could reach at least 10 million workers by 2030 and argued that closing the gap could reduce disease burden and generate significant economic benefits. Its analysis also found that Africa accounts for a disproportionately large share of the projected shortage.
The latest WHO projection is higher, at 11.1 million workers, underscoring how workforce requirements and demographic pressures continue to evolve.
The numbers are improving — but the demographic clock is ticking
WHO also points to progress in how countries track their healthcare workforce.
More than 90% of WHO member states actively reported health-workforce data in 2025, while the availability of workforce data has increased nearly 20-fold since the National Health Workforce Accounts system was launched in 2017.
Better data could help governments identify where shortages are emerging and plan for retirements before vacancies become critical.
But training more healthcare workers takes years, particularly for doctors and specialist professionals. At the same time, ageing populations can increase demand faster than workforce numbers grow.
That leaves health systems facing a race between training, retaining and replacing workers on one side — and demographic change on the other.
What happens next?
The WHO says countries need forward-looking workforce planning that considers not just how many healthcare professionals they have today, but their ages, where they work, how many are approaching retirement and how future populations will change.
The organization has highlighted education, employment, retention and better workforce planning as key areas for action.
For patients, the issue ultimately comes down to a basic question: will there be enough healthcare professionals available when demand rises?
The WHO’s latest figures suggest that, without changes in workforce planning and supply, many health systems will have to answer that question sooner rather than later.
And with millions of healthcare workers approaching retirement age around the world, the next phase of the global health workforce story may be shaped not only by how many professionals countries can train — but by how many they can keep.
