BALTIMORE — New Zealand may have lost the series, but All Blacks coach Dave Rennie believes the bigger picture tells a much more encouraging story with the 2027 Rugby World Cup now just over a year away.
South Africa defeated the All Blacks 43-28 in Baltimore on Saturday, sealing a 3-1 victory in the four-Test “Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry” series and reinforcing the Springboks’ position as the standard New Zealand must chase heading toward next year’s World Cup in Australia.
But Rennie is refusing to treat the series defeat as evidence that New Zealand is heading in the wrong direction.
Instead, he pointed to one statistic that underlined the attacking progress he believes the All Blacks have made: 17 tries across the four Tests against the reigning world champions.
“We’ll wake up tomorrow and know we’re moving in the right direction,” Rennie said after the Baltimore defeat, while acknowledging that losing the series would still hurt.
Springboks Finish the Job in Baltimore
The series finale at M&T Bank Stadium, home of the NFL’s Baltimore Ravens, delivered another physical contest between rugby’s two most successful World Cup nations.
South Africa scored six tries to New Zealand’s four, with Damian de Allende, Morné van den Berg, Malcolm Marx, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Kurt-Lee Arendse and Cameron Hanekom crossing for the Springboks.
New Zealand responded through Codie Taylor, Will Jordan, Ethan Blackadder and Beauden Barrett. Jordan’s first-half score came after an exhausting 32-phase attack and extended his international try tally to 55.
The decisive period came after halftime.
South Africa’s powerful replacements gave the Springboks fresh momentum at scrum time, and tries from Marx and Du Toit helped stretch the lead to 29-14.
New Zealand threatened another comeback, but Arendse produced a spectacular late try before Hanekom crossed soon afterward to effectively settle the contest.
A crowd of 68,173 watched the Baltimore showdown, which concluded New Zealand’s eight-match, six-week tour — its first tour of this kind in South Africa for three decades.
A Series That Changed Quickly
The final 3-1 scoreline does not tell the entire story.
New Zealand opened the Test series with an impressive 33-16 victory in Johannesburg, appearing to catch the Springboks before they had found their best rhythm.
South Africa answered immediately.
The Springboks won the second Test 33-26 in Cape Town, with captain Siya Kolisi among the try scorers and Cheslin Kolbe contributing 18 points from the kicking tee. New Zealand actually outscored South Africa four tries to three but paid heavily for mistakes and discipline problems.
South Africa then edged the third Test 29-24 at FNB Stadium, moving 2-1 ahead after another bruising contest in which both teams scored four tries.
That defeat exposed one of New Zealand’s biggest concerns during the series: discipline.
The All Blacks conceded 12 penalties in the third Test, surrendered a penalty try and had flyhalf Ruben Love sent to the sin bin before halftime.
By Baltimore, the challenge had become even tougher.
Regular captain Ardie Savea was unavailable after suffering a dislocated shoulder, while Luke Jacobson was also ruled out with an elbow injury. Codie Taylor consequently led the All Blacks in the final Test.
Rennie Sees Progress Behind the Scoreline
For Rennie, however, the most important question is not whether New Zealand could beat South Africa in September 2026.
It is whether the All Blacks are building a team capable of beating them — and everyone else — when the Rugby World Cup arrives in 2027.
The coach praised his players’ defensive effort across the series but conceded that South Africa were far more clinical when opportunities appeared in Baltimore.
The Springboks, Rennie said, represent the level New Zealand wants to reach.
That assessment carries extra weight because South Africa will arrive at the 2027 tournament attempting something unprecedented in the professional era: a third consecutive Rugby World Cup title, after winning in 2019 and 2023.
New Zealand, meanwhile, remains one of only two nations alongside South Africa to have won at least three men’s Rugby World Cups.
The All Blacks were champions in 1987, 2011 and 2015 and reached the final again in 2023, losing to South Africa by a single point. Their historical World Cup winning percentage remains the highest in the competition.
The 2027 World Cup Road Is Already Taking Shape
New Zealand’s next major examination will come in November’s Nations Championship, when the All Blacks travel to face Scotland, Wales and England.
Then the countdown to Australia becomes increasingly serious.
The All Blacks will begin their 2027 Rugby World Cup campaign against Chile in Perth on October 2, before facing tournament host Australia in Sydney on October 9 and Hong Kong China in Melbourne on October 15.
That pool-stage meeting with Australia could prove crucial to New Zealand’s route through the knockout rounds.
And the possibility of another confrontation with South Africa will loom over the tournament.
For now, the Springboks unquestionably own the bragging rights. They lost the opening Test but responded by winning three consecutive matches against their greatest rivals, including the decisive Baltimore finale.
Yet Rennie appears convinced the scoreboard is only part of the story.
New Zealand came to the series needing to discover how far it had progressed against rugby’s current benchmark. It leaves with three defeats — but also with 17 tries, valuable experience under enormous pressure and a much clearer picture of what still needs fixing.
The Springboks won the series. The bigger question is whether the lessons New Zealand learned from losing it will matter more when the two giants meet again with a World Cup on the line.
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