JAKARTA — Indonesia’s new finance minister used his first press conference on Friday to signal that the fiscal playbook is not being rewritten — even as markets still price in cabinet churn and ratings-agency caution.
Suahasil Nazara, sworn in after President Prabowo Subianto sacked Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa earlier this week, kept the government’s 2026 budget-deficit baseline at 2.85% of GDP, according to Reuters. That leaves the plan under the legislated 3% of GDP ceiling in Law No. 17 of 2003. He is the third finance minister in less than two years.
The year-to-date tape still looks contained. Suahasil said the January–August deficit was Rp240.1 trillion, or 0.93% of GDP. Revenues reached Rp2,055.6 trillion (+25.4% year on year) while spending hit Rp2,295.7 trillion (+17.1%). ANTARA separately reported a primary surplus of Rp154 trillion as of end-August. Subsidies jumped to Rp331.4 trillion (+52.1%) on fuel support costs, and the student-and-mothers feeding programme had spent Rp134.2 trillion against a Rp229 trillion full-year budget.
Investor nerves have a longer fuse. Reuters noted capital outflows intensified after Fitch and Moody’s cut Indonesia’s credit-rating outlook on policy unpredictability. Suahasil said any debate on changing fiscal rules should stay constructive: “The state budget must remain credible,” he told reporters, adding that revenue must be strengthened, spending made effective and productive, and the deficit managed “in a sound and controlled manner.”
One continuity flag markets will track: placing at least Rp200 trillion of government funds at state commercial banks through July 2027. Suahasil said the policy continues and any withdrawal would be “well communicated.” Tax refunds were Rp191.82 trillion as of end-August, down 37% year on year after Purbaya pushed more audits.
Bottom line: Jakarta held the 2.85% line and the 3% legal ceiling — the next proof for rupiah and bond flows is whether state-bank cash, refunds, and fiscal-rule talk stay boringly predictable.
— WWC NEWSDESK
