SEOUL — A major shift could be taking shape in the U.S. auto market as Hyundai Motor Group closes in on Ford in quarterly vehicle sales, with a new industry forecast putting the Korean automaker ahead for the first time.
According to Cox Automotive, Hyundai Motor Group — which includes Hyundai Motor, Kia and Genesis — is projected to sell 511,421 vehicles in the United States during the third quarter of 2026, representing a 6.5% increase from the same period last year.
Ford, meanwhile, is projected to sell 504,172 vehicles, a 7.1% decline year over year.
If the forecast is realized, Hyundai Motor Group would finish the July–September quarter in third place in U.S. vehicle sales, behind General Motors and Toyota. It would also mark the first quarter in which the Korean group has surpassed Ford.
Hyundai’s Hybrid Push Gains Momentum
One of the major factors behind Hyundai Motor Group’s projected rise is the growing U.S. demand for fuel-efficient vehicles and hybrids.
Cox Automotive analysts have pointed to stronger consumer interest in vehicles offering better fuel economy as gasoline prices remain elevated. Hyundai and Kia have expanded their hybrid offerings, giving the group a wider selection in a segment that has become increasingly important to American buyers.
Hyundai Motor also reported record global hybrid sales in the second quarter, with hybrid vehicles accounting for 18.9% of its global sales during the period. The company said North American demand remained resilient, with U.S. wholesale volume increasing 0.9% year over year.
Ford Still Holds the Broader 2026 Lead
The projected third-quarter result does not mean Hyundai Motor Group has overtaken Ford for the entire year.
Ford still held a cumulative advantage through August, according to reporting by Seoul Economic Daily. That means the potential Q3 shift would represent a quarterly milestone rather than an annual change in the U.S. sales ranking.
Ford has also faced supply-related challenges affecting some of its vehicle production. Industry reporting has linked disruptions involving a key supplier to reduced availability of some popular pickup models.
Toyota Also Closing In on GM
The changing rankings extend beyond the Hyundai-Ford contest.
Cox Automotive projects General Motors to lead third-quarter U.S. sales with 671,706 vehicles, followed by Toyota at 642,707.
Toyota’s projected Q3 volume would represent a 2.2% increase from a year earlier, while GM’s forecast represents a 5.2% decline.
That puts pressure on the long-standing U.S. sales hierarchy as Asian automakers continue gaining market share.
Cox Automotive has projected that Asian automakers will account for more than half of U.S. new-vehicle sales for a second consecutive quarter, while the Detroit automakers’ combined share is forecast to fall to just above 36%.
A Potential Turning Point for the U.S. Auto Market
The Hyundai-Ford race highlights how rapidly the U.S. vehicle market is changing.
Hyundai Motor Group’s broader lineup of hybrids has positioned its Hyundai and Kia brands to respond to consumers looking for greater fuel efficiency, while Genesis adds a premium brand to the group’s U.S. portfolio.
But the projected ranking remains just that — a forecast. Final third-quarter sales figures will determine whether Hyundai Motor Group actually finishes ahead of Ford.
For now, the numbers point to a potentially significant milestone: a Korean automaker group is within striking distance of one of America’s historic automotive giants.
And if the forecast holds, the U.S. auto-sales leaderboard could look noticeably different when the quarter closes.
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