MANILA, Philippines — Filipino motorists could face another increase at the pump next week as persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt global petroleum markets.
Preliminary industry estimates cited by GMA News indicate that gasoline prices could increase by around ₱1.00 to ₱1.50 per liter, while diesel may rise by approximately ₱1.75 to ₱2.25 per liter. The estimates are based on recent movements in the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) benchmark and foreign-exchange averages.
The projected increases would come just days after oil companies implemented another significant round of price hikes on August 18.
Another increase could be coming
According to an oil industry source cited by GMA News, international oil prices have been pushed higher as expectations for a quick resolution to the US-Iran conflict have weakened.
The market is also closely watching developments involving shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy route. Continued uncertainty over navigation and petroleum trade has kept a geopolitical premium in oil prices.
The latest outlook comes after a sharp increase in Philippine pump prices this week.
Effective August 18, oil companies raised:
- Gasoline: ₱2.49 per liter
- Diesel: ₱3.84 per liter
- Kerosene: ₱5.01 per liter
The Department of Energy-reported adjustments followed two weeks of rollbacks and were in effect through August 24.
Pump prices have already climbed significantly this year
The latest increase was reported as the 33rd fuel-price movement of 2026.
Following the August 18 adjustment, the cumulative net increase for the year reached approximately:
- Gasoline: ₱53.82 per liter
- Diesel: ₱56.75 per liter
- Kerosene: ₱50.65 per liter
That means motorists and businesses are already dealing with a substantially higher fuel-cost environment compared with the beginning of the year.
Why diesel is particularly vulnerable
The pressure is not coming only from crude oil prices.
Reuters recently reported that the global market is also facing a shortage of refined petroleum products, particularly diesel. Middle Eastern refining capacity remained below pre-war levels, while disruptions affecting Russian refining and weaker Chinese processing and fuel exports have further tightened supplies.
Reuters reported that diesel exports from Russia, the Middle East and major Asian suppliers were about 1.3 million barrels per day lower in July than a year earlier, adding pressure to international diesel markets.
This matters for the Philippines because domestic pump prices are influenced by international refined-product benchmarks, including MOPS, as well as movements in the peso-dollar exchange rate.
But motorists should wait for the official announcement
Despite the preliminary projections, the figures should not yet be treated as final pump-price increases.
Oil companies traditionally announce their official price adjustments on Monday, with the changes taking effect the following day. GMA News noted that the current figures remain industry estimates based on market movements observed during the week.
In other words, the final adjustment could still change depending on international oil prices, exchange-rate movements and market developments before the official announcement.
The bigger question: how long will the increases last?
For Filipino consumers, the immediate concern is another increase in transportation and operating costs. Higher diesel prices can have a particularly broad impact because diesel is heavily used by public transport, delivery fleets, trucks, agriculture and other commercial activities.
The international market, meanwhile, remains highly sensitive to developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz.
Reuters’ analysis also highlights an important complication: even if crude oil prices eventually decline, consumers may not immediately see equivalent relief because refining capacity and refined-fuel inventories remain under pressure.
For now, motorists will have to wait for the official Monday announcements to find out whether the projected ₱1.00–₱1.50 gasoline increase and ₱1.75–₱2.25 diesel increase will materialize.
One thing is already clear: the next few days could determine whether Filipino motorists get another hit at the pump — or finally get a reprieve.
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