TAIPEI, Taiwan — The global laptop market is heading for a deeper downturn, with shipments expected to fall sharply this year and continue declining through 2028 as soaring component prices and supply shortages collide with weak consumer demand.
Global notebook computer shipments are forecast to drop 8 percent year-on-year to 167.9 million units in 2026, according to Taiwan’s Market Intelligence and Consulting Institute (MIC).
The outlook gets even worse next year.
MIC expects shipments to decline another 4.7 percent to 160 million units in 2027, as rising retail prices make laptops increasingly expensive for consumers. (Taipei Times)
AI Boom Is Creating an Unexpected Problem for Laptop Buyers
The same artificial intelligence boom powering record demand for technology is now creating supply problems for the global PC industry.
MIC deputy director-general Edward Lin said surging demand for AI servers has tightened supplies of several key components used across the electronics industry.
The shortages include:
- Standard DRAM memory
- High-bandwidth memory chips
- High-end multilayer ceramic capacitors
- Advanced microscopic bridge substrates
- Build-up films
- High-end copper-clad laminates
- T-glass
According to MIC, the supply crunch could continue until 2028. (Taipei Times)
In other words, the race to build more powerful AI infrastructure could leave ordinary laptop buyers paying more for less.
Laptop Prices Could Rise as Manufacturers Face Higher Costs
The global technology industry is experiencing an increasingly unusual situation.
Demand for AI servers and data centers is booming, but traditional consumer electronics are struggling.
Laptop manufacturers now face higher costs for critical components while consumers remain cautious about spending on new devices.
MIC said the higher costs are likely to be passed on to consumers, putting further pressure on already weak demand.
The result could be a cycle that is difficult to break:
Higher component prices → more expensive laptops → weaker consumer demand → fewer shipments.
MIC does not expect replacement demand to recover before supplies improve and component costs decline. (Taipei Times)
The Downturn Could Last Until 2028
The decline is not expected to end quickly.
MIC said the global notebook market could remain under pressure through 2028, as supply shortages and elevated costs continue to affect manufacturers and consumers.
One potential bright spot is NAND flash memory.
Lin said shortages of NAND flash could begin easing by the end of 2027.
However, other key components used in advanced computing systems could remain difficult to secure for much longer. (Taipei Times)
AI PCs Are Still Growing — Even as Total Laptop Sales Fall
Ironically, the broader laptop market may be shrinking just as a new generation of AI-powered computers gains momentum.
MIC forecasts that AI PCs will account for:
- 54.1 percent of PCs in 2026
- 66.3 percent in 2027
- 76.1 percent in 2028
That means AI capabilities are expected to become standard features in most new PCs within the next few years. (Taipei Times)
But the next major breakthrough may go far beyond today’s AI assistants.
The Future of AI PCs Could Be ‘Agentic’
MIC believes the next major opportunity for the PC industry will come from computers capable of running meaningful agentic AI workloads locally.
Unlike basic AI assistants that simply answer questions or generate content, agentic AI systems can potentially handle more complex workflows and carry out tasks.
That requires significantly greater computing power and memory.
The shift could create a new reason for consumers and businesses to upgrade their computers.
However, there is a major challenge.
The laptops capable of delivering those experiences will require more advanced — and potentially more expensive — hardware. (Taipei Times)
PC Makers Are Cutting Memory to Control Prices
Faced with rising component costs, some PC manufacturers have responded by reducing memory specifications.
The strategy is designed to keep retail prices from rising too dramatically.
But MIC warned that this could hurt the user experience — particularly as AI becomes more demanding.
Lin described the reduced-memory strategy as a short-term response rather than a sustainable long-term solution.
That is because AI features increasingly depend on powerful processors and large amounts of memory.
A cheaper laptop with compromised specifications may look attractive today.
But it could quickly become less competitive as AI applications become more advanced. (Taipei Times)
The PC Industry Faces a Tough Choice
Laptop manufacturers now face a difficult balancing act.
They can:
Keep prices lower by reducing specifications
or
Build more powerful AI-ready machines that cost more.
Neither option is perfect.
Cutting specifications could frustrate consumers and make devices less capable of running future AI software.
Raising prices could further reduce demand at a time when consumers are already holding onto their existing laptops for longer.
As AI shifts from an optional feature to an expected capability, manufacturers may have little choice but to invest in better hardware.
The Bottom Line
The global laptop market is expected to shrink by 8 percent this year, with shipments falling to 167.9 million units.
Another decline is forecast for 2027, and MIC expects the downturn to continue into 2028 as weak demand, high component costs and supply shortages weigh on the industry. (Taipei Times)
Yet the same AI boom hurting traditional laptop sales could eventually become the industry’s biggest opportunity.
AI PCs are expected to make up more than three-quarters of the market by 2028.
For now, however, consumers face an uncomfortable reality:
The AI revolution is making computers smarter — but it may also make your next laptop more expensive.
WWC ONE MEDIA J.M.D
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