MANILA, Philippines — A powerful stock-market rally may be complicating Manuel V. Pangilinan’s next move in the Philippine coconut industry, with a new report saying Metro Pacific Investments Corp. is prepared to delay a potential takeover of Axelum Resources Corp. as speculative buying pushes the listed coconut exporter’s valuation higher.
InsiderPH reported on September 4 that Metro Pacific, which already has a substantial investment in Axelum, had been considering steps that could eventually lead to greater control and possibly privatization of the company. But according to an unnamed source described as being on the buyer’s side, the sharp rise in Axelum shares has prompted Metro Pacific to reassess the economics of such a transaction.
The distinction is important: Metro Pacific and Axelum have not announced a formal takeover or tender offer through the Philippine Stock Exchange. The report therefore reflects information attributed to an unnamed source rather than a completed or officially disclosed transaction.
Axelum rally changes the equation
Axelum shares closed at P3.07 on September 3, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly P11.7 billion, according to PSE data. The stock had climbed more than 35% since the beginning of the year and about 60% over the preceding 12 months, according to InsiderPH.
The rally accelerated in early September. AXLM rose 4.26% on September 1 and another 4.76% on September 2 before easing slightly on September 3. Delayed market data later showed the shares at around P3.00 on September 4, after trading as high as P3.15 during the session.
That run-up matters because any buyer seeking additional shares would potentially have to negotiate against a much higher market valuation than only months earlier.
According to the InsiderPH report, Metro Pacific believes speculative buying has pushed the stock beyond what it considers an appropriate acquisition value, giving the Pangilinan group little reason to rush.
For investors expecting an imminent deal, that could completely change the calculation.
Metro Pacific already made a P5.3-billion bet
Metro Pacific’s relationship with Axelum is not new.
In 2023, Metro Pacific Agro Ventures Inc. agreed to invest P5.32 billion for a 34.76% interest in Axelum, marking one of the Pangilinan group’s biggest moves into Philippine agriculture.
The investment included both common and preferred shares and was positioned as part of Metro Pacific’s broader strategy to build businesses connected to food security and agriculture.
Axelum is one of the Philippines’ major manufacturers and exporters of coconut products, including desiccated coconut, coconut milk and cream, coconut water and coconut cooking oil. It also supplies products to international brands, including global coconut-water company Vita Coco.
In March 2026, Metro Pacific Agro Ventures transferred its Axelum shares to Metro Pacific Coconut Holdings Corp., a wholly owned subsidiary. PSE disclosures show that the transaction represented a restructuring within the Metro Pacific group rather than a sale to an outside investor.
That corporate positioning is likely to keep investors watching closely for any future move involving Axelum.
The business itself is becoming more profitable
The takeover speculation is also unfolding while Axelum’s earnings are improving.
For the first six months of 2026, Axelum reported P412.1 million in net income, up from P220.5 million during the same period a year earlier—an increase of nearly 87%.
Interestingly, the profit increase came even as first-half gross revenue slipped to P4.38 billion from P4.51 billion.
For the second quarter alone, Axelum posted P145.4 million in net income compared with P82.8 million a year earlier. The company’s book value stood at approximately P3.05 per share as of June 30.
Axelum itself described the P412-million first-half profit as coming despite difficult global operating conditions.
That stronger profitability could help explain part of the market’s growing interest in the company, separate from any takeover speculation.
But the public float adds another twist
Axelum’s ownership structure could amplify share-price movements.
PSE data put the company’s public float at about 23.59%, with roughly 3.8 billion outstanding common shares.
InsiderPH’s source expressed concern that shareholders holding significant positions could be contributing to the price increase in anticipation of a richer acquisition offer.
However, no evidence of improper trading or price manipulation was presented in the report, and no regulatory finding establishing such conduct has been cited. That allegation should therefore be treated strictly as a concern attributed to the unnamed source—not as an established fact.
Why investors are remembering Metro Pacific’s own privatization
Part of the speculation may be rooted in Metro Pacific’s history.
MPIC itself was delisted from the Philippine Stock Exchange in 2023 after its major shareholders pursued a tender offer and ultimately increased the price offered to minority investors during the privatization process.
Investors betting on Axelum may be hoping for another transaction in which a buyer eventually sweetens its offer.
But according to the InsiderPH source, Metro Pacific currently appears willing to wait rather than chase Axelum’s share price upward.
That may be the biggest warning for speculative traders.
A rising share price can sometimes make a takeover more attractive to investors—but it can also make the company too expensive for the buyer.
And if Metro Pacific believes Axelum’s market valuation has moved beyond what it is prepared to pay, the very traders betting on an acquisition could end up delaying the deal they are waiting for.
For now, Metro Pacific remains Axelum’s strategic shareholder and Axelum continues to operate as a publicly listed company.
The next real signal will not come from market speculation—it will come from an official disclosure showing whether MVP is prepared to increase his bet on the Philippine coconut business, or simply wait for the price to come back down.
WWC ONE MEDIA J.M.D
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