HANOI — Vanguard plans to raise its Vietnam exposure to about US$2.5 billion over the coming years from roughly US$1.5 billion now, Duncan Burns, its Asia-Pacific head of investment management and global equity, told a conference here ahead of FTSE Russell’s expected upgrade of Vietnam to secondary emerging-market status, Reuters reported.
Burns said Vanguard intends to hold Vietnam exposure for decades as long as it remains in the benchmark — a long-horizon signal that lands just as passive money starts to rebalance. SSI Research estimates funds tracking FTSE indexes will buy about US$240 million of Vietnamese shares in the first tranche on 18 September, before the index changes take effect. FTSE has previously estimated the upgrade could redirect as much as US$6 billion into Vietnamese equities as portfolios adjust in stages through 2027.
Foreign investors have already leaned in: overseas buyers took a net VND 2.7 trillion (about US$104 million) of shares on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange in the week of 14–18 September, Reuters said — though they remain net sellers by about VND 91 trillion (roughly US$3.5 billion) year to date. FTSE identified 27 Vietnamese names for its Global All Cap Index, including Vingroup (VIC), FPT, and Hoa Phat (HPG). SSI expects the biggest first-round ETF inflows into VPBank, Vinhomes, FPT, and Hoa Phat — while Vingroup could still see net outflows of about US$28 million if existing ETF selling outweighs upgrade-related buying.
FTSE CEO Fiona Bassett called the upgrade a milestone reflecting progress in strengthening Vietnam’s capital market. Dynam Capital chairman Craig Martin said the reclassification is a signpost toward greater foreign involvement, adding that the market remains relatively cheap with still-strong earnings growth. Even so, the VN-Index is up only about 1.4% this year, lagging gains of roughly 24% in Thailand and 21% in Singapore, LSEG data showed — a reminder that the upgrade story has not yet rewritten the full-year tape.
Bottom line: The Vanguard $2.5B path is the narrative, but the near-term test is whether first-tranche passive buys and HOSE foreign net buying hold after Monday’s reclassification — watch VPBank–Vinhomes–FPT–Hoa Phat flow prints and whether year-to-date foreign selling finally flips.
— WWC NEWSDESK
