MANILA, Philippines — Filipino motorists may be heading toward another painful fuel-price increase next week, with early industry estimates cited by Manila Standard indicating that some petroleum products could rise by as much as ₱10 per liter as global energy markets absorb another wave of Middle East supply disruptions.
But motorists should not treat the ₱10 figure as final yet.
The projected adjustment remains preliminary and could still change as international refined-fuel prices, foreign-exchange movements and the remaining trading days feed into the calculation for the week beginning September 22.
What is already certain is that drivers are starting from a much more expensive base.
Beginning September 15, oil companies raised gasoline by ₱5.68 per liter, diesel by ₱4.31 and kerosene by ₱4.62, according to the Department of Energy.
One week earlier, gasoline had already climbed ₱4.69, diesel ₱5.18 and kerosene ₱5.58.
That means in just two weekly adjustments, gasoline increased by ₱10.37 per liter, diesel by ₱9.49 and kerosene by ₱10.20.
Another large increase would push the Philippine fuel shock into a third consecutive week.
Some motorists are already paying more than ₱100 per liter
The latest round of increases has pushed some fuel grades above the psychologically significant ₱100-per-liter level, particularly at higher-priced Metro Manila stations.
After the September 15 adjustment, industry estimates cited by Daily Tribune placed premium RON 97/100 gasoline at as much as ₱107.28 per liter, regular diesel at up to ₱103.71, and premium diesel at as much as ₱111.31 depending on location and retailer.
Those are retail ranges rather than nationwide fixed prices.
The Philippines has a deregulated downstream oil industry, so pump prices differ according to company, location, product grade and other commercial factors.
But the direction is unmistakable.
Fuel has become dramatically more expensive in only a matter of weeks.
Why diesel could become the bigger problem
The international oil story is no longer simply about crude.
Diesel itself is becoming unusually expensive.
Reuters reported on September 16 that refining margins for benchmark Asian ultra-low-sulfur diesel had surged above $87 per barrel, an all-time high in LSEG pricing data.
Before the latest supply crisis, those margins were around $22 per barrel.
That matters to the Philippines because local pump prices are influenced not merely by the price of crude oil but by the cost of finished petroleum products traded in the region.
The country imports substantial quantities of refined fuels, meaning a shortage of diesel in Asia can hurt Filipino consumers even if crude prices themselves temporarily retreat.
The squeeze is being driven by several pressures at once.
Middle Eastern exports have been disrupted.
Russian refining and fuel exports have faced additional constraints.
And buyers around the world are competing for fewer available diesel cargoes.
That combination has pushed the premium on diesel sharply higher.
Saudi supply disruptions have added another layer of risk
Recent attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have intensified concerns.
Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia temporarily shut its strategically important East-West crude pipeline after an attack, disrupting a route capable of moving millions of barrels of oil per day to the Red Sea coast.
That route had become especially important because traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was already heavily constrained by the broader Middle East conflict.
Oil markets initially surged following the attacks.
Brent crude settled at $105.68 per barrel earlier this week after briefly jumping much more sharply during trading.
Prices subsequently eased after Saudi Arabia found alternative ways to move additional crude through Oman, with Brent settling at $105.83 on September 16, down 2.7% for the session.
That decline may sound encouraging.
But it does not mean the fuel crisis is over.
Oil traders still see an unusually tight market
Reuters reported that Asian oil traders remain concerned that the disruption will not disappear quickly.
Physical premiums for Dubai and Oman crude have strengthened, while refiners in countries including South Korea and China have searched for alternative supply outside their traditional Middle Eastern sources.
The International Energy Agency has also warned that global oil supply could remain severely constrained if normal Gulf flows do not recover.
Its latest assessment projected a much deeper 2026 supply reduction because of disruptions affecting Middle Eastern production and shipping.
That makes Philippine weekly pump-price forecasting especially difficult.
A geopolitical development on Wednesday or Thursday can materially change the calculation by the time oil companies finalize prices for Tuesday.
It is one reason the ₱10-per-liter warning should be treated as an early estimate rather than a guaranteed increase.
The peso can make imported fuel even more expensive
International oil prices are only half of the Philippine equation.
Petroleum is purchased internationally in dollars.
When the peso weakens against the US currency, the local cost of importing the same barrel of oil or shipment of gasoline rises.
GMA News reported that the peso had recently closed at ₱62.68 to the dollar, another record low, as high oil prices and global uncertainty weighed on the currency.
That produces an unpleasant feedback loop for an oil-importing economy.
Global fuel prices rise.
The Philippines needs more dollars to pay for imports.
The peso weakens.
And the weaker peso can push the local landed cost of those imports higher still.
The government has now crossed the legal trigger for fuel-tax relief
There is, however, one major difference between this week’s fuel-price shock and many previous episodes.
The government has officially crossed the threshold that allows temporary petroleum excise-tax relief to be considered.
On September 15, the DOE certified that the 30-day average Dubai crude price reached $99.41 per barrel from August 13 to September 11.
That is well above the $80-per-barrel threshold established under Republic Act No. 12316.
The certification does not automatically cut fuel taxes.
Instead, it completes the statutory condition allowing the Development Budget Coordination Committee, in coordination with the Energy secretary, to consider recommending a temporary reduction or suspension to the President.
Republic Act No. 12316 allows the President, following the prescribed recommendation process, to reduce or suspend excise taxes on selected petroleum products for as long as three months at a time when the one-month Dubai crude average reaches at least $80 per barrel.
Whether that authority will now be exercised—and which products would be included—remains a government policy decision.
How much could a tax suspension matter?
Current excise taxes differ among fuel types.
Industry groups have argued that full excise-tax relief could translate into approximately ₱10 per liter for gasoline, ₱6 for diesel and ₱5 for kerosene, before considering interactions with value-added tax and other pricing components.
The LPG Marketers Association recently urged the government to extend relief beyond LPG and kerosene to gasoline and diesel as well.
Those figures should not be confused with the projected fuel-price increase.
A ₱10 gasoline excise tax and an up-to-₱10 projected market-driven pump-price increase are two separate numbers arising from two different mechanisms.
The government has previously used the new law.
In April, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued Executive Order No. 114 temporarily suspending excise taxes on LPG and kerosene after the required oil-price threshold was reached.
Any new suspension would require another decision under the process established by RA 12316.
PUV drivers already receive a ₱12-per-liter discount
Public-utility vehicle operators and drivers are also receiving targeted assistance.
The government increased its fuel subsidy from ₱10 to ₱12 per liter beginning August 15, with eligible drivers allowed discounts on up to 150 liters per week.
That gives a maximum potential saving of ₱1,800 a week for qualified beneficiaries.
As of September 9, the DOE said ₱718.10 million in subsidies had been availed of by 102,356 PUV beneficiaries through 3,574 gasoline stations nationwide.
The program is being reviewed monthly.
That distinction is also important: the subsidy is targeted at qualifying public-transport operators and drivers. It is not a nationwide ₱12 discount available to all motorists.
Supply is not yet the immediate problem
Despite soaring prices, DOE data indicate that the Philippines still has adequate physical petroleum inventories.
As of September 11, the government estimated available supply at:
57.17 days for gasoline,
60.80 days for diesel,
124.57 days for kerosene,
60.56 days for jet fuel,
42.29 days for fuel oil, and
39.27 days for LPG.
The DOE says it continues to monitor international prices, local inventories and deliveries.
This means the immediate Philippine problem is primarily price, not an outright nationwide shortage.
That is an important distinction.
A country can have enough fuel physically available while still paying dramatically more for every imported cargo.
Why higher diesel prices can spread far beyond gas stations
Diesel is particularly significant because motorists are not its only consumers.
Jeepneys and buses use it.
Delivery trucks use it.
Agricultural machinery and fishing vessels use it.
Construction equipment uses it.
Businesses use diesel generators when electricity fails.
A prolonged rise in diesel costs can therefore work its way through logistics, food distribution, agriculture, transportation and other services.
That does not mean every fuel-price hike immediately produces an equivalent increase in consumer prices.
Businesses can absorb part of the increase, contracts can delay the effect, and government measures may cushion some sectors.
But persistent fuel increases create additional cost pressure throughout an economy heavily dependent on road transport.
The latest crisis is different because diesel supply itself is tight
Earlier oil shocks were often described mainly through crude benchmarks such as Brent, Dubai and West Texas Intermediate.
The current episode has another dimension.
Refined products themselves—especially diesel—are scarce.
Reuters reported that Asian diesel refining margins have reached record levels as traders worry about limited regional availability.
Shell and Equinor executives separately warned that the global energy market’s traditional “shock absorbers,” including inventories, alternative shipping routes and flexible supply, are becoming less effective as the Middle East disruption drags on.
That helps explain why a decline in crude oil on a particular trading day may not immediately translate into cheaper Philippine diesel.
Different parts of the oil supply chain can move in different directions.
Tuesday’s number is still not final
For motorists, the most important caution is also the simplest.
There is no final ₱10-per-liter September 22 increase yet.
Weekly Philippine pump adjustments depend on the full movement of regional petroleum benchmarks and the peso-dollar exchange rate.
Earlier estimates can rise or fall before companies announce their final adjustments.
Recent history shows just how volatile those estimates can be.
In July, early calculations pointed to a diesel increase of about ₱9 to ₱10 per liter. The final DOE-approved adjustment reached ₱10.68 for diesel and ₱11.77 for kerosene, while gasoline increased by ₱3.65.
The market can therefore move materially even during the final days of a pricing cycle.
But motorists are already dealing with a ₱10 shock
Whether next Tuesday ultimately delivers a full double-digit increase or something smaller, Filipino consumers have already absorbed something close to it.
Over only the September 8 and September 15 adjustments:
Gasoline rose ₱10.37 per liter.
Diesel rose ₱9.49.
Kerosene rose ₱10.20.
And the global conditions driving those increases have not disappeared.
Middle Eastern energy infrastructure remains under threat.
Shipping through strategic waterways remains disrupted.
Asian diesel supplies are tight.
The peso remains weak.
And Brent crude is still trading above $100.
For now, therefore, the ₱10 warning is a forecast rather than a final pump-price order.
But after two consecutive weeks of steep increases, the bigger question facing Filipino motorists may no longer be whether fuel will become more expensive.
It is how much more expensive it can become before the international supply shock finally begins to ease.
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