ASTANA/SINGAPORE — Singapore cannot protect its future by retreating behind economic walls, even as geopolitical rivalry intensifies, supply chains become strategic weapons and the global trading system comes under growing strain.
That was the central warning from Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong during a major speech in Kazakhstan on Thursday, August 27 — but behind the warning was an equally important message about where Singapore may look for its next generation of economic opportunities.
Speaking at Nazarbayev University in Astana, Lee argued that Singapore will have to repeatedly transform, or “remake”, its economy while remaining connected to the rest of the world.
His remarks come as the international environment that helped Singapore prosper for decades becomes less predictable.
Lee said the United States is reassessing the role it traditionally played in global security and trade, while economic resilience and national security increasingly take priority over pure economic efficiency.
“Trade dependencies are being weaponised,” Lee warned, describing a world in which multilateral cooperation has become harder and major-power competition more intense.
Singapore’s answer: Don’t close the doors
For a small economy such as Singapore, Lee’s argument is relatively straightforward: self-sufficiency is not a realistic strategy.
Singapore depends heavily on international commerce, investment, talent, aviation, shipping and financial flows. Even while strengthening supply chains and reducing vulnerabilities, the country will still need to conduct business with economies around the world.
That means Singapore must continue finding partners — including countries outside its traditional economic networks.
And Kazakhstan is emerging as one of those partners.
Lee said Singapore must remain competitive and trusted while developing capabilities that make it valuable to international businesses and governments.
The strategy is not simply to trade more with established partners such as the United States, China, Europe and neighbouring ASEAN countries, but to expand Singapore’s economic connections into markets where opportunities may still be underdeveloped.
Central Asia increasingly fits that description.
Why Kazakhstan suddenly matters more
Kazakhstan is already Singapore’s largest economic partner in Central Asia.
The relationship has also been expanding beyond conventional trade.
During Lee’s Kazakhstan visit, Singapore and Kazakhstan signed agreements covering water management as well as digital trade and logistics.
One memorandum between Singapore Cooperation Enterprise and Middle Corridor Multimodal aims to strengthen digital trade integration along the so-called Middle Corridor, an increasingly important transport network linking China and Europe through Central Asia and the Caucasus.
Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the cooperation could cover digital trade and logistics while improving connectivity and supply-chain resilience.
A separate agreement with Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation will involve cooperation in areas including water sustainability, reclamation and digitalisation.
The Straits Times reported that potential Middle Corridor cooperation could include trade documentation, multimodal logistics and supply-chain management.
The route has drawn additional attention as geopolitical conflicts and disruptions have complicated some traditional Eurasian transportation routes.
Singapore Cooperation Enterprise chief executive Kong Wy Mun told the newspaper that volumes along the corridor have been growing by about 30 per cent annually, although differing customs systems across the countries involved continue to create bottlenecks.
For Singapore, that creates a familiar opportunity: rather than competing on natural resources or geography, it can export expertise in logistics, digitalisation, customs processes, urban development and infrastructure management.
The commercial relationship is already substantial
According to The Straits Times, bilateral goods trade between Singapore and Kazakhstan amounted to S$326.6 million, while services trade reached S$159 million. Singapore’s stock of direct investment in Kazakhstan stood at about S$2.1 billion, with 158 Singapore overseas affiliates operating in the country.
Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has also pointed to growing Singaporean investment.
AsiaOne, reporting on Lee’s meeting with Tokayev, cited the Kazakh president as saying that almost 500 companies with Singaporean capital were operating in Kazakhstan.
Another important foundation was put in place last year.
The Kazakhstan-Singapore Services and Investment Agreement entered into force on March 1, 2025, giving Singapore businesses additional market access in 15 services sectors in Kazakhstan and providing more liberal investment conditions.
The agreement had originally been signed in May 2023 during then-President Halimah Yacob’s state visit to Kazakhstan.
Singapore’s Central Asia strategy could get much bigger in 2027
The Kazakhstan visit is therefore about more than one bilateral relationship.
Singapore will chair ASEAN in 2027, and Lee has signalled that the country wants to use that position to explore stronger connections between Southeast Asia and Central Asia.
Possible areas include transport, energy, sustainable development and connectivity.
The Straits Times reported that Lee said Singapore wants ASEAN to engage partners beyond its traditional networks when it assumes the chairmanship.
That could eventually position Singapore as one gateway connecting Central Asian economies to Southeast Asia — while Kazakhstan could play the reverse role for Singapore businesses seeking access to Central Asia and the wider Eurasian market.
That is potentially the bigger economic story behind Lee’s visit.
At a time when countries are trying to diversify supply chains and reduce excessive dependence on individual markets, connecting previously separate economic regions becomes increasingly valuable.
But Lee says Singapore’s biggest transformation must happen at home
Finding new markets alone will not be enough.
Lee said Singapore will need to continuously restructure its domestic economy as technologies and global competition change.
Artificial intelligence is one obvious pressure point.
Businesses will need help adopting AI, while workers will need continuing education and training as existing jobs evolve or disappear.
Singapore must also keep strengthening areas in which it already possesses international advantages, including its container port, aviation hub and financial services sector.
At the same time, Lee argued that multinational companies cannot be Singapore’s only source of corporate strength.
Singapore needs internationally successful companies with local roots as well.
This is an important distinction.
For decades, attracting multinational corporations has been one of the pillars of Singapore’s development model. But in a world where governments are increasingly linking investment, manufacturing and technology to national-security considerations, relying exclusively on foreign corporate investment becomes more complicated.
Building stronger home-grown companies therefore provides another layer of economic resilience.
Why social cohesion may be the most important part of the strategy
Lee’s speech eventually moved beyond trade, investment and AI.
He warned that Singapore’s economic model cannot succeed if society fractures along racial, religious or economic lines — or between existing citizens and newcomers.
As Singapore matures, social mobility could also become more difficult, making inequality and social divisions increasingly important political and economic challenges.
Growth, Lee argued, therefore has to be broadly shared.
Housing, healthcare and education are not separate from Singapore’s competitiveness strategy. They help maintain the social stability that allows the government and society to make difficult long-term economic adjustments.
That may ultimately be the most significant part of Lee’s message.
The next chapter of Singapore’s economic strategy is not simply about choosing between America and China, expanding into Kazakhstan, embracing AI or finding alternative trade routes.
It is about remaining open while other countries become more defensive — and convincing Singaporeans that the benefits of openness are still worth protecting.
A symbolic first Central Asia visit
Lee’s Kazakhstan trip, from August 24 to 27, formed part of his first official visit to Central Asia. He travelled on to Uzbekistan from August 27 to 31.
During the Kazakhstan leg, President Tokayev conferred on Lee the Order of Dostyk, or Friendship, First Class, recognising contributions to relations between the two countries.
Nazarbayev University also conferred an honorary professorship on Lee, where he delivered his lecture on how Singapore developed its economy and remained competitive.
Singapore and Kazakhstan established diplomatic relations in 1993, although their connections stretch back further.
Lee Kuan Yew visited Kazakhstan in September 1991, just months before the country became independent following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
More than three decades later, Singapore is again looking at Central Asia — this time not merely as a distant emerging region, but as part of a wider strategy for surviving a world in which established trade routes, partnerships and economic assumptions can no longer be taken for granted.
And that may explain why Lee’s message in Astana was as much about Singapore’s future as it was about Kazakhstan.
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