SANAA/ADEN — Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement has dramatically expanded its control along the country’s Red Sea coastline, seizing key coastal territory and strategic islands near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.
The rapid offensive could have consequences far beyond Yemen. The Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and provides a critical maritime link between Europe and Asia. Any sustained disruption could increase shipping costs, threaten energy supplies and put further upward pressure on already-elevated oil prices.
According to Channel NewsAsia, the Houthis seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coast and three strategic islands on Friday, September 11, consolidating their position along a shipping corridor that links major markets in Europe and Asia.
The developments came as the wider Middle East conflict continues to threaten another major maritime chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz.
Houthis move toward Bab el-Mandeb
The latest advance is particularly significant because of the Houthis’ position around Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow passage at the southern entrance of the Red Sea.
Reuters reported that Houthi forces reached Perim Island, a strategically located island in the strait, while Yemeni government sources said government forces had withdrawn from the island. The Houthis also reportedly captured the mainland coastal town of Dhubab, directly opposite Perim.
The developments raise the possibility that the Houthis could gain greater operational leverage over vessels using the Red Sea route.
The Associated Press reported that the Bab el-Mandeb normally carries roughly 12% of global goods, highlighting why the latest Houthi advance has attracted international concern.
Mocha capture adds to the threat
The latest escalation follows the Houthi seizure of Mokha, a historic Yemeni port city on the Red Sea, on September 10.
Mokha is located roughly 80 kilometers from Bab el-Mandeb and occupies a strategically important position along the approaches to the waterway.
AP reported that the capture could give Iran another potential source of leverage in its confrontation with the United States and its allies, particularly if Houthi forces use their new positions to intensify threats against shipping.
Al Jazeera likewise reported that the Houthi advance represents a major blow to Yemen’s internationally recognized government and strengthens the group’s position around the Bab el-Mandeb.
Why the Red Sea matters to the world
The Red Sea is not simply a regional shipping lane.
It forms part of the maritime route connecting the Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Suez Canal and Mediterranean, allowing cargo ships and energy tankers to move between Asia and Europe without sailing around Africa.
The route became significantly more important after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted during the current Iran conflict.
CNA reported that Saudi Arabia had increasingly relied on Red Sea routes after the conflict effectively restricted traffic through Hormuz, a waterway through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies have historically moved.
That makes the Houthi advance potentially more consequential: two major maritime corridors are now facing heightened security risks at the same time.
Oil markets already feeling the pressure
Financial markets have reacted to the growing threat.
Reuters reported that Brent crude briefly climbed above $105 per barrel, with traders concerned that fighting around Yemen could further complicate global energy flows.
The pressure intensified further after Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West oil pipeline following a drone attack. Reuters reported that the pipeline closure added another risk to Gulf energy flows at a time when the region was already facing disruption linked to the conflict.
Saudi Arabia has described the pipeline shutdown as a precautionary measure.
Shipping companies already have a history of avoiding the route
The threat is not entirely new.
Houthi attacks on commercial vessels beginning in late 2023 prompted numerous shipping companies to reroute vessels away from the Red Sea and around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa.
That alternative route adds thousands of nautical miles to some journeys, increasing fuel consumption, transit times and insurance costs.
AP reported that shipping through Bab el-Mandeb had fallen by approximately 60% from previous levels after the Houthi attacks began, although traffic had partially recovered before the latest escalation.
A renewed reduction in traffic could therefore have consequences for freight rates, delivery times and consumer prices worldwide.
Iran’s role under scrutiny
The Houthi advance has also intensified questions about Iran’s role in the conflict.
Reuters reported that Yemeni government, Iranian and regional sources said the Houthi coastal offensive was carried out with guidance from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran, however, has publicly rejected the characterization of the Houthis as a proxy force under its direct control.
CNA also reported that US officials accused the Houthis of acting as Iranian agents, while Tehran has maintained that it does not control the movement.
The competing claims underscore the broader strategic significance of Yemen’s latest battlefield developments.
Yemen could be heading toward another major escalation
The offensive also threatens to reignite Yemen’s own long-running conflict.
Al Jazeera reported that the Houthi advance has exposed weaknesses among government forces and could push the country toward a renewed phase of civil war after years of relative calm.
The UN special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, warned that the country was entering a “new and more dangerous phase”, according to CNA’s reporting on the UN Security Council briefing.
Thousands of civilians have already been displaced by the latest fighting, adding another humanitarian dimension to an escalation that is rapidly becoming an international economic concern.
The bigger question: Can the Houthis disrupt the Red Sea?
The Houthis do not necessarily need to completely shut down Bab el-Mandeb to cause major economic disruption.
Even a sustained threat to commercial vessels could force shipping companies to reroute, raise insurance premiums and increase transportation costs.
And with the Strait of Hormuz already under severe pressure, the prospect of another major shipping corridor becoming unreliable is raising fears of a broader shock to global energy and trade markets.
The immediate question is no longer simply how much territory the Houthis can capture in Yemen. It is whether their new position can translate into sustained control or disruption of one of the world’s most important maritime routes.
If that happens, the consequences could reach far beyond the Middle East—from oil prices and shipping costs to global supply chains and consumer prices.
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