TOKYO — Japan’s biggest energy vulnerability is showing no sign of disappearing.
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, one of Japan’s leading shipping companies, is preparing for disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to continue beyond the end of 2026, warning that the crucial oil shipping route remains too dangerous for a normal return of tanker traffic.
CEO Jotaro Tamura said the security situation has deteriorated enough that a resumption of regular operations before the end of the year now appears difficult.
That marks a significant change from Mitsui O.S.K.’s previous planning assumptions.
The company had earlier expected to begin gradually restoring Hormuz crossings from October, with operations potentially returning to normal in January. Tamura now says that timeline is likely to be pushed back, although it remains impossible to say exactly how long the delay will last.
Why Mitsui O.S.K. Is Refusing to Rush Back
For major tanker operators, the question is no longer simply whether a ship can physically make it through the Strait of Hormuz.
The bigger question is whether it can do so repeatedly and safely.
Tamura said Mitsui O.S.K. would need evidence that safe passage could be sustained across multiple voyages before restoring regular operations. Evaluating whether an individual tanker can slip through safely on a particular day is not enough for a company responsible for crews, vessels and massive energy cargoes.
Some ships have continued moving through Hormuz despite the conflict, and vessels have at times switched off their automatic identification system, or AIS, transponders to reduce their visibility.
Tamura argued that operating without transponders should not become normal practice. If ships must hide their positions because crews believe an attack is possible, the route cannot reasonably be considered safe for routine commercial shipping.
Traffic Through Hormuz Is Falling Again
The latest shipping numbers underline those concerns.
Reuters reported that only four commodity vessels were recorded passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, September 2, compared with a 10-day average of roughly 13.
The numbers can change because some ships deactivate their tracking systems, but the decline came amid renewed U.S.-Iran military escalation and Iranian warnings that access to the waterway could be further restricted.
The strategic importance of the strait is difficult to exaggerate.
Before the latest conflict severely disrupted trade, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that roughly 20.9 million barrels per day of oil moved through Hormuz during the first half of 2025—equivalent to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.
By the second quarter of 2026, EIA estimates show flows had collapsed to roughly 4.9 million barrels per day, compared with 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Japan Has More to Lose Than Most Major Economies
For Japan, prolonged disruption is particularly dangerous because the country imports almost all the crude oil it consumes.
Japanese government energy data show that in 2024 about 95.1% of Japan’s crude oil imports came from the Middle East, including 43.7% from the United Arab Emirates and 40% from Saudi Arabia.
Japan’s overall dependence on imported crude stood at 99.7%.
That dependence meant the Hormuz crisis quickly became much more than a shipping problem.
It became an energy-security problem.
Japan began the largest strategic oil reserve release in its history in March, making roughly 80 million barrels available as the disruption intensified. The move included national reserves as well as reduced mandatory private-sector stockpile requirements.
Tokyo has since been working aggressively to reduce its reliance on crude that must pass through Hormuz.
America Is Becoming a Much Bigger Oil Supplier to Japan
One of the clearest consequences is already visible thousands of kilometers away from the Persian Gulf.
Japan is buying significantly more American oil.
Reuters reported that Japan’s imports of U.S. crude increased by more than 400% between March and June 2026, helping offset a 54% drop in supplies from the Middle East during that period.
Other major Asian importers are making similar adjustments, with producers in the Americas and Africa benefiting as buyers look for supplies that do not depend on the Strait of Hormuz.
Japanese trade data for July showed how dramatic the transition has become.
Japan imported 12.1 million kiloliters of crude during the month. U.S. oil accounted for 36.3% of the total—more than nine times the volume imported from the United States a year earlier—while the Middle East’s share had fallen to 59.3%.
That does not mean Japan can easily abandon Middle Eastern crude.
Long-distance shipments from North America, Latin America or Africa take more time and can be more expensive than Japan’s traditional Gulf supply chain.
But the crisis is forcing refiners to weigh something they previously had less reason to prioritize: security of supply may now matter more than the cheapest or shortest shipping route.
A Shipping Crisis Is Becoming a Redrawing of the Oil Map
There is an unexpected upside for companies such as Mitsui O.S.K.
Longer oil routes create new business.
Tamura said the company has seen stronger shipping demand associated with crude coming from the United States and West Africa.
Rival Japanese carrier Nippon Yusen has also discussed assisting refiners with imports from Latin America and Africa as Japan searches farther afield for energy.
In other words, the Hormuz crisis may be damaging one traditional trade route while creating entirely new ones.
That shift could persist even if the strait eventually becomes safer.
Companies that have spent months building relationships with suppliers in the United States, Africa and Latin America may be reluctant to return to the extreme concentration of risk that existed before the conflict.
Oil Markets Are Already Pricing In the Danger
The renewed tension is also being felt in global oil prices.
Brent crude climbed to $97.29 a barrel on September 3, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate reached $93.04, with both benchmarks rising as markets reacted to the latest escalation and fears of further Middle Eastern supply disruption.
For now, Japan is not planning another release from its national crude reserves during September or October, according to Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryosei Akazawa.
That makes the success of alternative supply arrangements increasingly important if Hormuz remains unreliable.
The Bigger Question Is What Happens After the Fighting Stops
The immediate concern for Mitsui O.S.K. is straightforward: keeping vessels and crews out of an environment the company considers unacceptably dangerous.
But the longer-term consequences could be much bigger.
For decades, Japan built its oil supply system around the assumption that enormous quantities of Middle Eastern crude could move through the Strait of Hormuz reliably.
The events of 2026 have challenged that assumption.
If Mitsui O.S.K. is correct and normal shipping cannot resume before 2027, Japanese refiners will have even more reason to lock in American, African and Latin American supplies.
And once those alternative supply chains become permanent, the real legacy of the Hormuz crisis may not be how long the strait remained disrupted.
It may be how much of the world’s oil trade never fully comes back.
WWC ONE MEDIA MJE
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