BERLIN — Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has scored a historic victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, delivering a major blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative party and sending shockwaves through German politics.

Exit polls showed the anti-immigration AfD winning about 44.5 percent of the vote, more than double its result in the previous state election in 2021.

Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, trailed far behind with about 18.5 percent.

The result marks the AfD’s biggest breakthrough yet in its push to move from opposition into power at Germany’s state level.

AfD Wins Big — But Cannot Yet Claim Power

The election victory does not automatically mean the AfD will form the next government.

Despite winning the largest share of votes, projections indicated that the party was likely to fall just short of an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt’s state parliament.

That presents a major problem for the AfD.

Most of Germany’s mainstream political parties have repeatedly ruled out forming a coalition with the party, maintaining a political “firewall” against cooperation with the far right.

The AfD has also placed enormous importance on winning enough seats to govern independently.

As a result, Germany could now face an unusual political situation:

The AfD won the election — but may still struggle to take power.

A Dramatic Jump From 2021

The scale of the AfD’s success is striking.

In the previous Saxony-Anhalt state election in 2021, the party won 20.8 percent of the vote.

Latest exit polls now place it at more than 44 percent.

That represents one of the most dramatic political shifts in modern German state politics.

Before election day, a major poll had already placed the AfD at 41 percent, compared with 23 percent for the CDU. The final exit-poll picture showed the far-right party performing even more strongly.

Chancellor Merz Suffers Major Blow

The result is also a significant setback for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

His CDU has governed Saxony-Anhalt since 2002.

But exit polls showed support for the party falling sharply to around 18.5 percent.

The election became an important test of public opinion toward Merz’s federal government, including its handling of immigration, the economy and other national issues.

The scale of the CDU’s defeat is likely to intensify pressure on Germany’s political establishment to explain why support for the AfD continues to rise, particularly in eastern Germany.

Immigration Takes Centre Stage

The AfD has built much of its political appeal around opposition to immigration and its calls for stricter policies on migrants and refugees.

The party’s campaign in Saxony-Anhalt focused heavily on:

• Tougher immigration policies
• Deportations of migrants without legal status
• Opposition to mainstream political parties
• Economic frustrations
• Criticism of Germany’s political establishment

Supporters argue that traditional parties have failed to address public concerns over immigration and the economy.

Critics, however, accuse the AfD of promoting extremist and divisive policies.

Germany’s Far Right Moves Closer to Government

The Saxony-Anhalt election had been closely watched because it raised the possibility of the AfD leading a German state government for the first time since World War II.

The party’s candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, had hoped to secure an outright majority that would allow the AfD to govern alone.

But the latest projections suggest the party may have fallen just short of that goal.

That means the immediate future of the state government remains uncertain.

The result is still historic.

The AfD has demonstrated that it can win a major state election outright.

The question now is whether winning votes will eventually translate into holding power.

Germany’s Political ‘Firewall’ Faces a New Test

For years, Germany’s mainstream parties have maintained a firm policy of refusing to cooperate with the AfD.

The strategy was designed to prevent the far right from entering government through coalition deals.

But the Saxony-Anhalt result is now putting that policy under enormous pressure.

If the AfD continues winning elections while other parties refuse to work with it, Germany could face increasingly complicated negotiations over who can actually form governments.

That dilemma is particularly serious in eastern Germany, where the AfD has built some of its strongest support.

The party had already made history by becoming the strongest party in Thuringia’s 2024 state election.

Now it has achieved an even more dramatic result in Saxony-Anhalt.

Why Saxony-Anhalt Matters Beyond One State

Saxony-Anhalt has a population of around 2.1 million people.

But Sunday’s election could have consequences far beyond the state.

Germany’s 16 states have significant powers, and regional governments play an important role in the country’s political system.

The election is also being viewed as an early warning sign for Germany’s national political establishment.

A strong AfD result could:

• Increase pressure on Chancellor Merz
• Influence upcoming state elections
• Strengthen the AfD nationally
• Deepen divisions between eastern and western Germany
• Raise new questions about how mainstream parties respond to the far right

The election may therefore become a defining moment in Germany’s broader political future.

AfD’s Rise Has Been Years in the Making

The party has steadily expanded its influence in German politics.

In 2024, the AfD became the strongest party in the eastern state of Thuringia.

It also became Germany’s second-largest political force in the federal election held last year, according to the NHK report provided.

The Saxony-Anhalt result now represents another major milestone.

The party has moved from being a political outsider to winning the largest share of votes in a key German state.

That transformation is forcing mainstream politicians to confront a difficult reality:

The AfD is no longer simply a protest party on the margins of German politics.

It is now competing directly for power.

Germany’s History Makes the Result Especially Sensitive

The rise of a far-right party carries particular significance in Germany because of the country’s history.

Following World War II and the crimes committed during the Nazi era, modern Germany placed enormous emphasis on democracy, tolerance and preventing the return of extremist movements.

Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has classified the AfD as a confirmed right-wing extremist movement, according to the NHK report.

The AfD rejects many of the accusations made against it.

But the classification and the party’s continued electoral growth have made it one of the most controversial political forces in Europe.

For critics, Sunday’s result is deeply alarming.

For supporters, it represents a revolt against the political establishment.

Record Turnout Shows High Stakes

The election also saw exceptionally strong voter participation.

Reports indicated turnout of more than 76 percent, reflecting the intense public interest surrounding the vote.

Around 1.7 million people were eligible to vote in the state.

The high turnout makes the result even more politically significant, suggesting that the AfD’s victory cannot simply be dismissed as the product of voter apathy or low participation.

Europe Is Watching Germany

The result is also likely to be watched closely across Europe.

Far-right and nationalist parties have gained support in several European countries, often driven by concerns about immigration, economic uncertainty and frustration with established political parties.

The AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt adds Germany — Europe’s largest economy — to that broader political trend.

But Germany’s history gives the development a unique significance.

A country that has spent decades building political barriers against extremism is now confronting the possibility that a far-right party could eventually lead one of its states.

The Biggest Question: Who Will Govern?

For all of the AfD’s celebration, the election’s most important political battle may now begin.

Winning the most votes is one thing.

Forming a government is another.

The AfD’s projected result appears to leave it just short of the seats needed to govern independently.

Yet other parties remain reluctant to cooperate with it.

That could create difficult negotiations and potentially leave Saxony-Anhalt facing political uncertainty.

For the AfD, the election is already a historic victory.

But for Germany’s mainstream parties, it is a warning.

A Political Earthquake With Consequences Still Unfolding

Sunday’s election has changed the political landscape in Saxony-Anhalt.

The AfD has surged past its rivals.

The CDU has suffered a dramatic defeat.

And Germany’s long-standing political firewall against the far right is facing one of its toughest tests yet.

The AfD may not yet have secured the majority it needs to govern alone.

But its victory sends a powerful message across Germany:

The political centre is under pressure.

The far right is growing.

And the next battle will be over whether winning an election can eventually lead to power.

For Chancellor Merz and Germany’s political establishment, the result is more than a regional defeat.

It is a political earthquake whose aftershocks could reach all the way to Berlin.

WWC ONE MEDIA J.M.D