MANILA, Philippines — A coalition of Bangsamoro groups is set to bring its push for political unity to Mendiola on Thursday, October 22, urging President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to support a proposed “rainbow coalition” in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
The planned rally, reported by Inquirer.net, comes at a critical moment for the region as political parties negotiate the leadership and composition of its first regular parliament following the September 14 parliamentary elections.
At the center of the political contest is Ahod “Al Haj Murad” Ebrahim, chair of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP), whose political camp is pushing for a broader governing arrangement that could bring rival parties and different communities together.
The rally highlights a key question facing the Bangsamoro region: Can political rivals set aside their differences to build a government that preserves the gains of the peace process?
What Is the ‘Rainbow Coalition’?
The proposed rainbow coalition seeks to bring together the MILF, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), other political parties, Indigenous Peoples and settler communities under a more inclusive governing arrangement.
Supporters argue that a broader coalition could help reduce political divisions, give smaller parties a voice and strengthen cooperation within the 80-member Bangsamoro Parliament.
However, the proposal remains a political initiative rather than a finalized governing agreement. The outcome will depend on negotiations among elected representatives and the parliamentary process for selecting the region’s chief minister.
In separate reporting, Luwaran, a publication associated with the MILF, reported that Mohagher Iqbal had advocated a rainbow coalition as a way to promote unity following the elections. He also cautioned that claims about secured parliamentary numbers should not be treated as final until agreements are formally concluded.
Why Murad’s Political Future Matters
The leadership dispute has roots in changes made to BARMM’s interim government in March 2025, when Marcos appointed Abdulraof Macacua to replace Murad as interim chief minister.
Murad, however, remains the MILF chairman and a central figure in the peace process between the Philippine government and the former rebel movement.
The distinction is important: the person leading the regional government and the person leading the MILF are not necessarily the same, even though the two roles are closely connected to the region’s political transition and peace commitments.
Murad’s supporters are seeking a governing arrangement that restores a central role for the MILF in BARMM’s political leadership. Whether that translates into Murad becoming the first chief minister of the regular parliament will ultimately depend on the votes of parliament members and the applicable legal procedures.
Election Results Set the Stage for a Political Showdown
The September 14 parliamentary elections produced a competitive political landscape, with no single party securing enough seats to elect a chief minister independently.
Reporting by Luwaran identified the Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) as winning 31 seats, the UBJP 30 seats and the BARMM Grand Coalition 15 seats.
A majority in the 80-member parliament requires 41 votes. That makes alliances with other elected members crucial to forming the next government.
The BFP has backed Macacua for the chief minister position, while the UBJP has backed Murad. The contest is therefore not only about individual leadership but also about which political groups can secure sufficient support to govern.
A rainbow coalition could provide a path toward a broader alliance, but its success will depend on whether the participating parties can agree on leadership, political priorities and a formal governing arrangement.
The Peace Process Remains a Major Concern
Beyond the contest for the chief minister’s position, the political debate carries implications for the long-running peace process in Mindanao.
The Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro, signed in 2014 by the Philippine government and the MILF, established the framework for ending decades of armed conflict and creating the autonomous Bangsamoro government. The Bangsamoro Organic Law subsequently provided the legal foundation for BARMM.
In earlier coverage of a major peace rally in Cotabato City, Inquirer.net reported calls for the full implementation of the agreement, the resolution of outstanding peace commitments and the appointment of a government counterpart to the MILF in the peace-implementation process.
These concerns illustrate why the current political negotiations matter beyond the distribution of parliamentary seats. The next regional government will face the challenge of maintaining political stability while advancing autonomy, development and commitments made under the peace agreement.
What Happens Next?
The Mendiola rally is intended to amplify calls for a more inclusive political arrangement and support for Murad’s camp. Whether it changes the calculations of elected parliament members or the position of the national government remains to be seen.
President Marcos has previously reaffirmed the national government’s respect for BARMM’s autonomy and parliamentary institutions. The Philippine Information Agency reported that he recognized Parliament’s authority to determine its leadership through the appropriate procedures under the Bangsamoro Organic Law.
That principle leaves the decisive question with the incoming parliament: Will lawmakers unite behind a broad coalition, or will competing alliances produce a different leadership outcome?
For Bangsamoro communities, the stakes extend beyond who occupies the chief minister’s office. The greater test will be whether the next government can turn political agreements into lasting peace, accountable governance and tangible improvements in people’s lives.
The bottom line: The planned Mendiola rally puts the proposed rainbow coalition and Murad’s political future in the spotlight. But public demonstrations alone cannot determine BARMM’s leadership. The decisive test will come through parliamentary negotiations, a formal majority and the legal process for electing the next chief minister.
